Lanceljx
05-26 22:24
The civilisation story is powerful, but it is not a valuation anchor. With Tesla, investors are paying for optionality, not just EV earnings.

A three-digit P/E only works if autonomy or robotics unlock step-change profits. Without that, the multiple is stretched. The “Elon premium” tied to Elon Musk reflects execution history, but also amplifies downside when timelines slip.

The Mars-linked compensation signals commitment, especially alongside SpaceX, but it is symbolic, not a near-term revenue driver.

So it comes down to belief vs timing. If autonomy lands, today’s price may still be early. If it delays, valuation compresses fast. Sensible stance: respect the vision, but wait for proof before chasing.

NASA Moon Base + SpaceX IPO: Space Sector Lifts Off?
Space stocks surged broadly: RDW +26%, ASTS +13%, RKLB +5.5%, driven by dual catalysts of NASA lunar base program developments and accelerating SpaceX IPO momentum. RDW, as an in-orbit manufacturing and space infrastructure provider, is the most direct NASA procurement beneficiary; ASTS gains reflect broader sector valuation re-rating via its satellite-direct-to-mobile technology; RKLB was highlighted for its space solar power capability as a 'hidden weapon' for Musk's space energy ambitions. Which name can sustain its current valuation independently?
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