Markets see roughly a 40% prob-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

Hawkish Warsh Sparks Rate Hike Fears: Time to Cut Growth Exposure?

QQQ fell 1.01% as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a more hawkish-than-expected debut FOMC appearance, holding rates steady but striking a firm tone. With real wages declining for two consecutive months and inflation re-accelerating, rate hike fears resurfaced, hitting high-multiple growth stocks hardest — META and MSFT led losses as capital rotated from tech into value for the second straight session. With 'higher for longer' becoming consensus, will you keep trimming growth and rotating to value, or bet on a swift Fed pivot?

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