May.25-29 Weekly: S&P 500 Extends 9-Week Rally While Oil Crashes and Inflation Refuses to Cool

TigerObserver
11:02

Last Week's Recap

1. Weekly Market Digest: S&P 500's 9-Week Run, PCE Inflation Hot, Oil Crashes

  • Pushing higher — S&P 500 ninth straight weekly gain; NASDAQ +2.4%, S&P +1.4%, Dow +0.9%.

  • Price pressures — April PCE inflation at 3.8% annual rate (highest since May 2023); core PCE 3.3%.

  • Oil pullback — Crude fell for a second straight week on U.S.-Iran talks, down nearly 10% for the week to ~$88; roughly 16% lower for May.

  • May's momentum — NASDAQ +8.4%, S&P 500 +5.1%, Dow +2.8% in May, though short of April's double-digit gains.

  • GDP downgrade — Q1 GDP revised down to 1.6% (from 2.0%) on weaker consumer spending and investment.

  • Rising expectations — Analysts raised Q2 S&P 500 earnings estimates by 2.5% in April/May, per FactSet; results begin mid-July.

  • East Asian rally — South Korea surged nearly 11% on AI optimism; Japan climbed to record highs, up nearly 2%.

  • Jobs ahead — Friday jobs report will test labor market strength; April added 175,000 jobs, breaking a 10-month alternating pattern.

2. US Market – SPX gains 1.43% as AI software and memory rally offset retail and energy drag

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 1.43% and closed at 7,580.06, as a surge in AI software, memory chips, and cloud infrastructure offset sharp declines in retail and energy majors.

Industry leaders: WallStreetBets (+14.05%), AI Application Software (+13.91%), IT Consulting & Services (+11.30%), Systems Software (+9.04%), and SaaS Concept (+8.81%).

9 Popular Stocks:

  • $Micron Technology(MU)$ +27.41% — Surged on blowout quarterly results and soaring HBM demand for AI servers.

  • $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ +14.79% — Rallied on AI accelerator market-share optimism and data-center revenue growth.

  • $Broadcom(AVGO)$ +7.77% — Advanced on AI custom silicon demand and VMware integration synergies.

  • $Microsoft(MSFT)$ +7.43% — Gained on Azure AI monetization and resilient enterprise cloud spending.

  • $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ +6.08% — Extended GLP-1 momentum on Mounjaro/Zepbound demand.

  • $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ -3.81% — Slipped on profit-taking and rotation into mid-cap AI plays.

  • $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ -4.61% — Continued to slide on consumer-spending caution and e-commerce margin pressure.

  • $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ -6.46% — Tumbled alongside crude oil on OPEC+ supply increase rumors.

  • $Costco(COST)$ -8.96% — Plunged on earnings miss and membership fee timing concerns.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

3. Hong Kong Market – HSI retreats 1.65% as tech divergence deepens; HSTECH ekes out gains

$HSI(HSI)$: The Hang Seng Index declined 1.65% and closed at 25,182.39, as heavy selling in internet giants and oil majors offset a frenzied rally in semiconductor and software plays.

The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ edged up 0.30% and closed at 4,882.4, with AI chip and hardware names masking weakness in platform-economy giants.

Industry leaders: Systems Software (+39.13%), Electronic Components (+18.31%), HK Semiconductor Stocks (+13.50%), Home Improvement Retail (+12.83%), and Apple Concept (+12.35%).

9 Popular Stocks:

  • $CATL(03750)$ +10.54% — The battery giant surged on resilient global EV battery orders and energy-storage contract wins in Europe; investors looked past lithium-price weakness to focus on its dominant market share.

  • $FAST RETAIL-DRS(06288)$ +4.94% — The UNIQLO operator’s depositary receipt advanced on China same-store sales stabilization and raised FY2026 guidance on Southeast Asia expansion.

  • $CHINA SHENHUA(01088)$ +4.4% — The coal and power giant gained on resilient domestic thermal coal demand and its integrated energy model offering defensive yield.

  • $HSBC HOLDINGS(00005)$ +2.4% — The banking heavyweight rose on Asian franchise resilience and its 7%+ dividend yield, attracting defensive rotation.

  • $CM BANK(03968)$ +2.08% — The mainland retail bank advanced on improving wealth-management fee income and stable asset quality.

  • $TENCENT(00700)$ -2.69% — The internet giant slipped on gaming and fintech valuation compression, with profit-taking in platform-economy names continuing.

  • $ICBC(01398)$ -2.35% — The state-owned lender pulled back on profit-taking after recent strength, with NIM stabilization failing to offset financial-sector rotation.

  • $CNOOC(00883)$ -3.3% — The offshore oil specialist tracked Brent crude lower as profit-taking hit the energy complex after recent gains.

  • $BABA-W(09988)$ -4.36% — The tech conglomerate declined on platform-economy profit-taking and e-commerce margin concerns; regulatory overhang continued to cap sentiment.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

4. Singapore Market – STI slips 0.6% as telecom and insurance drag offset ASEAN SDR strength

The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ declined 0.6% and closed at 5,037.86, as a sharp selloff in Singtel and Prudential offset gains in ASEAN SDRs and industrials.

Sectors: Aluminum (+124.72%) skyrocketed on speculative supply-constraint positioning and thin-volume momentum. Forest Products (+23.07%) advanced on packaging demand recovery.

8 Popular Stocks:

  • $Delta TH SDR 1to1(TDED.SI)$ +9.05% — The Thai power-electronics leader extended its rally on AI data-center power-supply demand and EV powertrain order momentum across its India and Slovakia footprint.

  • $TLKM ID SDR 1to5(ITKD.SI)$ +4.76% — The Indonesian telecom giant’s SDR advanced on resilient mobile data revenue and its 7%+ dividend yield attracting income investors; the stock benefited from renewed ASEAN SDR inflows.

  • $Airports TH TH SDR1to1(TATD.SI)$ +4.88% — The Thai airport operator’s SDR climbed on tourism recovery optimism and resilient passenger traffic through Suvarnabhumi; the upcoming dividend timeline also supported sentiment.

  • $ST Engineering(S63.SI)$ +2.8% — The government-linked engineering group continued its defense and smart-city momentum, with aircraft MRO contract flows underpinning steady institutional buying.

  • $Alibaba HK SDR 5to1(HBBD.SI)$ -4.32% — The Chinese tech conglomerate’s SDR declined in sympathy with the broader Hang Seng Tech weakness; profit-taking in platform-economy names and e-commerce margin concerns weighed on sentiment.

  • $Tencent HK SDR 10to1(HTCD.SI)$ -3.04% — The internet giant’s Singapore SDR tracked Hong Kong weakness as gaming and fintech exposure faced valuation compression; thin SDR liquidity amplified the move.

  • $Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1(HXXD.SI)$ -5.79% — The consumer electronics and EV player’s SDR fell on EV delivery-margin concerns and profit-taking across the China EV supply chain.

  • $Singtel(Z74.SI)$ -7.66% — The telecom incumbent slumped on ex-dividend adjustment and profit-taking after its recent run to multi-month highs; the Optus stake-sale narrative failed to offset yield-proxy rotation.

  • $Prudential USD(K6S.SI)$ -10.52% — The UK insurer’s Singapore SDR collapsed on sterling weakness and concerns over its Asian operations’ new-business-value growth; the sharp drop triggered stop-loss selling in the thinly traded SDR.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

5. Australian Market – XJO gains 0.86% as copper-driven BHP record offsets bank weakness

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ gained 0.86% to 8,731.70 over the week, as BHP's copper-powered surge to fresh all-time highs and strength in consumer staples offset ongoing weakness in the Big Four banks.

Industry leaders: Commercial Printing (+28.57%), Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals (+22.64%), Communications Equipment (+17.85%), Technology Distributors (+16.06%), Soft Drinks (+15.38%) benefited from consumer reopening and defensive positioning.

7 Popular Stocks:

  • $WESFARMERS LTD(WES.AU)$ +6.84% — The diversified retail conglomerate surged on strong first-half profit results, with net profit jumping to $1.6 billion (up 9.3% YoY). Bunnings and Kmart trading momentum continued to underpin confidence in its core retail exposure.

  • $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ +4.28% — The diversified miner hit fresh all-time highs as copper earnings exceeded iron ore for the first time in company history. Copper now accounts for more than 50% of group earnings, with the stock up 34% YTD and 58% over twelve months as supply-demand dynamics for the red metal remain tight.

  • $VANGUARD TOTL ST MKT ETF-CDI(VTS.AU)$ +1.08% — The broad-market ETF tracked the XJO higher, offering diversified exposure across the ASX 200 as institutional inflows favored passive Australian equity strategies.

  • $Judo Capital Holdings Limited(JDOPA.AU)$ +1.97% — The Additional Tier 1 capital notes from the challenger bank advanced on resilient banking-sector yield demand and floating-rate distribution appeal in a rising-rate environment.

  • $SUNCORP NYR3QUT(SUNPJ.AU)$ +1.36% — The hybrid security from the financial services group gained on income-investor demand for franked floating-rate distributions and its defensive insurance-banking exposure.

  • $WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION(WBC.AU)$ -1.5% — The Sydney-based lender continued to underperform as mortgage-pricing competition and deposit-funding cost pressures weighed on the banking sector.

  • $NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD(NAB.AU)$ -1.37% — The business-focused bank tracked the sector lower, with commercial-property exposure and tighter SME credit conditions continuing to cap sentiment.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors

Friday (Most Important)

  • Jobs Report & Unemployment Rate (BLS)

  • Consumer Credit (Fed)

Tuesday (Key)

  • ADP Employment Report

  • JOLTS Job Openings

  • ISM Services PMI

  • Factory Orders

Monday

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI

  • Construction Spending

Wednesday

  • Weekly Jobless Claims

  • Productivity & Labor Costs

2. Earnings Spotlight

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Computex Event: NVIDIA's Windows PCs, Can Microsoft Stage a Comeback?
NVIDIA appears alongside Microsoft at both Computex in Taipei and the Microsoft Build conference, unveiling the first batch of Windows PCs powered by NVIDIA chips as their main processor. NVIDIA is launching the NVIDIA DSX platform, built around "simulate the entire factory before you build it"; Jensen says it lets you validate AI factory performance without spending a dime. This is the "second shot" in Microsoft's AI PC strategy and a direct strike at the desktop strongholds of Intel and AMD. If NVIDIA's PC chips ship on schedule, can the traditional x86 duo still hold their moat?
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