Interesting disconnect between the bullish 8000 S&P target and the weakening macro data. If payrolls come in near 60k and consumer spending keeps slowing, earnings growth expectations may need to be revised lower. The AI capex cycle is still supporting markets, but eventually investors will want to see productivity gains translate into revenue and profits rather than just spending.
Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Both Target S&P 8000 — But Index Falls?
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan both lifted their S&P 500 targets to 8,000, on earnings upgrades rather than multiple expansion. Monday disagreed: S&P 500 −0.52% to 7,745.06, Dow −0.51%, Nasdaq −0.32%. August consumer confidence weakened, and a sell-side note titled "Three Bubbles, One Liquidity Problem" flagged narrowing upside and extreme investor leverage. Worth noting: 8,000 is 3.3% from here. The week's variable is July FOMC minutes, Thursday 2 a.m. Beijing, from the meeting that held at 3.50–3.75% with three hike votes. Long AI and semis, rotate to financials and consumer, or wait?
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