*Market Crashes & Rate Hikes: When to Start Picking Up Chips*

When markets crash, everyone asks the same 2 questions: 1) Is all the bad news priced in? 2) When do I buy?

*1. “Price in Rate Hikes” means*

Markets don’t wait for the Fed’s last hike. They fall _ahead_ of it. By the time rate hikes stop, stocks are usually already down 20-30%. The crash IS the market pricing in pain.

*2. When to start picking up chips*

Don’t try to catch the exact bottom. No one does. Use “chips” = small portions of cash.

*Simple rule: Buy in slices, not all at once*

Wait for 3 signals before you go heavy:

1. *Rates near peak*: Fed signals “maybe 1 more hike”. Fear is max.

2. *Capitulation*: Everyone’s selling, “stocks are dead” headlines. RSI <30, VIX >30.

3. *First higher low*: Market stops making new lows for 2-4 weeks. Shows sellers are tired.

*Example with numbers*

Say you have $10k cash. Nifty crashes from 22k → 16k on rate hike fear.

Don’t put $10k at 18k hoping it’s the bottom.

Split it: $2k at 18k, $3k at 16.5k, $5k at 15k-15.5k if we get there.

If 16.5k holds and market bounces, you bought some chips cheap. If it drops to 15k, your avg is way better and you still have bullets.

*Key idea*: You win by surviving the fall, not timing it. Start buying small when blood is on the street. Go bigger when others are most scared. Keep 30-40% cash even after first buy.

Markets reward patience + partial buys. Not perfect timing.