Lanceljx
06-11

Three separate narratives are hitting the market at the same time:


1. Geopolitical risk: Any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz raises oil prices, which feeds inflation concerns and hurts risk assets.



2. Rates and inflation: If inflation remains sticky, the market has to price in fewer rate cuts. High-growth sectors like semiconductors and AI tend to be the most sensitive to higher discount rates.



3. AI valuation reset: After an enormous rally, investors are demanding proof that AI spending will generate returns. Even strong earnings are being judged against extremely high expectations.




For me, this looks more like a valuation and sentiment correction than a collapse of the AI thesis. Demand for AI compute, networking, memory, and power infrastructure remains strong. The question is not whether AI grows, but whether current prices already reflect too much future success.


If you're a long-term investor, gradual buying during weakness makes sense. If you're a trader, catching every dip can be dangerous when momentum is still pointing down.


My approach would be:


Continue DCA into diversified ETFs.


Keep cash available for deeper pullbacks.


Avoid chasing leveraged products after sharp rebounds.


Watch oil prices and inflation data closely. Those will likely matter more than day-to-day AI headlines.



The biggest mistake is assuming every 10% drop is a bargain. The second biggest mistake is assuming every correction marks the end of the AI cycle. Right now, patience and selective buying seem more attractive than either panic-selling or aggressive dip-buying.

Geopolitics and Inflation Hammer Markets: Hold or Exit?
Nasdaq fell another 2%, the 3x semiconductor ETF plunged 10.43%, Nvidia dropped 3.73%, and Broadcom slid 5.12%, as a rebound attempt failed once again. Three simultaneous pressures are weighing on markets: renewed U.S.-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, hotter-than-expected inflation dimming rate-cut hopes, and Oracle's post-earnings selloff stoking fears over AI spending returns. With geopolitics, rates, and AI valuations all pressing down, will you keep buying the dip or step aside?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • vibzee
    06-12
    vibzee
    The valuation part is the real trap here. I’m not touching leverage, but staggered ETF buys make sense if oil keeps cooling. What would change your DCA pace first?
  • snuggix
    06-12
    snuggix
    Power names are the tell here. If compute demand holds but power gets bottlenecked, this reset probably lasts longer than people think
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