US-Iran De-escalation: How Assets May React

After progress in U.S.-Iran talks, markets moved into risk-on relief:

Oil fell, stock futures rose, inflation concerns eased, and safe-haven demand cooled.

The key chain:

Geopolitical risk falls

→ Oil falls

→ Inflation pressure eases

→ Bond pressure declines

→ Risk appetite improves

But asset relationships are not fixed.

If talks reverse, oil and gold may regain strength, while stocks and BTC may face pressure.

Same event, different dominant driver, different asset reaction.

Disclaimer

For information, research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Payrolls Triple Forecasts — Why Did Rate-Hike Bets Barely Move?

August payrolls came in at 162,000, nearly 3x the 56,000 consensus and a five-month high; unemployment 4.1%, prior months revised up 55,000. Markets barely moved: hike odds went 50% to 52%, the 10-year up 3bp to 4.79%. Wages explain it: hourly earnings slowed to 3.1% YoY from 3.2%, though the monthly pace ticked back to 0.3%, leaving pricing power in next week's CPI. Equities split: S&P −0.38%, Dow −0.51%, Russell 2000 +0.25%, Microsoft −2.04%. The economy looks sturdier; the longest-duration assets lost their audience first. Trim mega-caps before CPI, or is strong payrolls a floor on its own?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

PageDickens
06-15
PageDickens
BTC usually reacts faster than gold here tbh — if oil stays soft, does IBIT keep the lead?
CHINNY168
06-16
CHINNY168
Done

Leave a comment

106

798

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":575424899184312,"tweetId":"575424899184312","gmtCreate":1781493000696,"gmtModify":1785987064307,"author":{"id":4228443963132142,"idStr":"4228443963132142","authorId":4228443963132142,"authorIdStr":"4228443963132142","name":"SG Visual Research","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7eedd3d4fd92e5aaa08533a8ffb66a5d","vip":5,"userType":5,"introduction":"🇸🇬 Sharing visual analysis of global research.","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.08.13","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":154,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"21b77238479740f99cdaa393def5ea54","categoryId":"7a15628ce2174325bddc6229505e0d70","name":"Payrolls Triple Forecasts — Why Did Rate-Hike Bets Barely Move?","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":21b77238479740f99cdaa393def5ea54}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"August payrolls came in at 162,000, nearly 3x the 56,000 consensus and a five-month high; unemployment 4.1%, prior months revised up 55,000. Markets barely moved: hike odds went 50% to 52%, the 10-year up 3bp to 4.79%. Wages explain it: hourly earnings slowed to 3.1% YoY from 3.2%, though the monthly pace ticked back to 0.3%, leaving pricing power in next week's CPI. Equities split: S&P −0.38%, Dow −0.51%, Russell 2000 +0.25%, Microsoft −2.04%. The economy looks sturdier; the longest-duration assets lost their audience first. Trim mega-caps before CPI, or is strong payrolls a floor on its own?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bbdce0c3859b57aa6bde24d88d8f427"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb4316b4ce91c04e877b0ef099500606","width":"1080","height":"6800"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb4316b4ce91c04e877b0ef099500606","width":"1080","height":"6800"}],"title":"US-Iran De-escalation: How Assets May React","html":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IBIT\">$比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GLD\">$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\nAfter progress in U.S.-Iran talks, markets moved into risk-on relief:\nOil fell, stock futures rose, inflation concerns eased, and safe-haven demand cooled.\nThe key chain:\nGeopolitical risk falls\n→ Oil falls\n→ Inflation pressure eases\n→ Bond pressure declines\n→ Risk appetite improves\nBut asset relationships are not fixed.\nIf talks reverse, oil and gold may regain strength, while stocks and BTC may face pressure.\nSame event, different dominant driver, different asset reaction.\nDisclaimer\nFor information, research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb4316b4ce91c04e877b0ef099500606\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"6800\">\n\n </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IBIT\">$比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GLD\">$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\nAfter progress in U.S.-Iran talks, markets moved into risk-on relief:\nOil fell, stock futures rose, inflation concerns eased, and safe-haven demand cooled.\nThe key chain:\nGeopolitical risk falls\n→ Oil falls\n→ Inflation pressure eases\n→ Bond pressure declines\n→ Risk appetite improves\nBut asset relationships are not fixed.\nIf talks reverse, oil and gold may regain strength, while stocks and BTC may face pressure.\nSame event, different dominant driver, different asset reaction.\nDisclaimer\nFor information, research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb4316b4ce91c04e877b0ef099500606\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"6800\">\n\n </body></html>","text":"$比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ After progress in U.S.-Iran talks, markets moved into risk-on relief: Oil fell, stock futures rose, inflation concerns eased, and safe-haven demand cooled. The key chain: Geopolitical risk falls → Oil falls → Inflation pressure eases → Bond pressure declines → Risk appetite improves But asset relationships are not fixed. If talks reverse, oil and gold may regain strength, while stocks and BTC may face pressure. Same event, different dominant driver, different asset reaction. Disclaimer For information, research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":106,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":798,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/575424899184312","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37965,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["IBIT","GLD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":571,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":575443312161824,"commentId":"575443312161824","gmtCreate":1781497352714,"gmtModify":1781522941854,"authorId":9000000000000434,"author":{"id":9000000000000434,"idStr":"9000000000000434","authorId":9000000000000434,"name":"PageDickens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e83e48989b3401bb5773e10a7c62208","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":575424899184312,"objectIdStr":"575424899184312","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"BTC usually reacts faster than gold here tbh — if oil stays soft, does IBIT keep the lead?","text":"BTC usually reacts faster than gold here tbh — if oil stays soft, does IBIT keep the lead?","html":"BTC usually reacts faster than gold here tbh — if oil stays soft, does IBIT keep the lead?","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":575751135215856,"commentId":"575751135215856","gmtCreate":1781572583611,"gmtModify":1781572587186,"authorId":3574931140779997,"author":{"id":3574931140779997,"idStr":"3574931140779997","authorId":3574931140779997,"name":"CHINNY168","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c8b638f761df5bbe338a2395645c833","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":575424899184312,"objectIdStr":"575424899184312","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/575424899184312"}