$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$

$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ Running the numbers on ASTS using SpaceX's Starlink as a benchmark. ASTS only needs $5.5B in sales at an 80% operating margin to generate a similar $4.5B profit.

Starlink's revenue is $11.4B with a 39% operating margin, yielding $4.4B.

Projected margins for ASTS are expected to be closer to 90%... if all goes well, we should see around $5B by 2029.

Using Starlink's 61% share of SpaceX's total revenue and a current cap of $2.38T, Starlink's implied valuation is about $1.5T. That's a 40x multiple.

My price target for ASTS in 2030 is now $3500. Appreciating the re-rating for space-based connectivity, thanks to SpaceX.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Ah_Meng
06-21 12:05
Ah_Meng
I agree with you... having said that, SpaceX value is crazy with a crazily small free float, so it's a manipulated stock to begin with. The valuation could also be adjusted if SpaceX crashed to a couple of dollars or even less than a dollar... but given that it is a manipulated stock, this likely won't happen in the near future. What more likely to happen is for the entire stock market to collapse... then SpaceX will show its true valuation...

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":575576120836176,"tweetId":"575576120836176","gmtCreate":1781545832000,"gmtModify":1781596072369,"author":{"id":9000000000000195,"idStr":"9000000000000195","authorId":9000000000000195,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000195","name":"TimothyBarnes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106a411ceff67f0e60547585f11948b5","vip":8,"userType":8,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":88,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d4382299341473f9a2487b037c74aff","width":"403","height":"525"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d4382299341473f9a2487b037c74aff","width":"403","height":"525"}],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASTS\">$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RKLB\">$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;Running the numbers on ASTS using SpaceX's Starlink as a benchmark. ASTS only needs $5.5B in sales at an 80% operating margin to generate a similar $4.5B profit.\nStarlink's revenue is $11.4B with a 39% operating margin, yielding $4.4B.\nProjected margins for ASTS are expected to be closer to 90%... if all goes well, we should see around $5B by 2029.\nUsing Starlink's 61% share of SpaceX's total revenue and a current cap of $2.38T, Starlink's implied valuation is about $1.5T. That's a 40x multiple.\nMy price target for ASTS in 2030 is now $3500. Appreciating the re-rating for space-based connectivity, thanks to SpaceX.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d4382299341473f9a2487b037c74aff\" tg-width=\"403\" tg-height=\"525\"></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASTS\">$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RKLB\">$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;Running the numbers on ASTS using SpaceX's Starlink as a benchmark. ASTS only needs $5.5B in sales at an 80% operating margin to generate a similar $4.5B profit.\nStarlink's revenue is $11.4B with a 39% operating margin, yielding $4.4B.\nProjected margins for ASTS are expected to be closer to 90%... if all goes well, we should see around $5B by 2029.\nUsing Starlink's 61% share of SpaceX's total revenue and a current cap of $2.38T, Starlink's implied valuation is about $1.5T. That's a 40x multiple.\nMy price target for ASTS in 2030 is now $3500. Appreciating the re-rating for space-based connectivity, thanks to SpaceX.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d4382299341473f9a2487b037c74aff\" tg-width=\"403\" tg-height=\"525\"></body></html>","text":"$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ Running the numbers on ASTS using SpaceX's Starlink as a benchmark. ASTS only needs $5.5B in sales at an 80% operating margin to generate a similar $4.5B profit. Starlink's revenue is $11.4B with a 39% operating margin, yielding $4.4B. Projected margins for ASTS are expected to be closer to 90%... if all goes well, we should see around $5B by 2029. Using Starlink's 61% share of SpaceX's total revenue and a current cap of $2.38T, Starlink's implied valuation is about $1.5T. That's a 40x multiple. My price target for ASTS in 2030 is now $3500. Appreciating the re-rating for space-based connectivity, thanks to SpaceX.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/575576120836176","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["RKLB","ASTS","SPCX"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":585,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":577494781542792,"commentId":"577494781542792","gmtCreate":1782014739196,"gmtModify":1782022226799,"authorId":4109324284357180,"author":{"id":4109324284357180,"idStr":"4109324284357180","authorId":4109324284357180,"name":"Ah_Meng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83ef98e5ff145e0ea6560244663783e1","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.27","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":0},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1679961600000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":1996963200000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.21","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":1,"categoryType":2007,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":0,"validityTo":"2026.07.21","validityToTimestamp":1784620823592}],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":575576120836176,"objectIdStr":"575576120836176","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"I agree with you... having said that, SpaceX value is crazy with a crazily small free float, so it's a manipulated stock to begin with. The valuation could also be adjusted if SpaceX crashed to a couple of dollars or even less than a dollar... but given that it is a manipulated stock, this likely won't happen in the near future. What more likely to happen is for the entire stock market to collapse... then SpaceX will show its true valuation...","text":"I agree with you... having said that, SpaceX value is crazy with a crazily small free float, so it's a manipulated stock to begin with. The valuation could also be adjusted if SpaceX crashed to a couple of dollars or even less than a dollar... but given that it is a manipulated stock, this likely won't happen in the near future. What more likely to happen is for the entire stock market to collapse... then SpaceX will show its true valuation...","html":"I agree with you... having said that, SpaceX value is crazy with a crazily small free float, so it's a manipulated stock to begin with. The valuation could also be adjusted if SpaceX crashed to a couple of dollars or even less than a dollar... but given that it is a manipulated stock, this likely won't happen in the near future. What more likely to happen is for the entire stock market to collapse... then SpaceX will show its true valuation...","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/575576120836176"}