Alihuat
06-18

AI commercialization remains concentrated in infrastructure; giants like Microsoft (MSFT) must bridge heavy CAPEX with direct software monetization—though its 123% surge in AI run-rate revenue to $37 billion shows scaling adoption. Forward multiples are adjusting, with Nvidia (NVDA) trading at a compressed forward P/E of 22, down from historical peaks. This coincides with a hawkish tightening cycle, highlighted by the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% while raising its median projection to 3.8%, signaling rates will stay higher for longer. Rather than the end of this bull market, the Fed's stance is a precautionary adjustment to engineer a soft landing. Consequently, the market is turning into a stock-picker's arena where cash-rich, cyclical companies outperform speculative tech. The long-term upward trend remains resilient, provided robust corporate productivity absorbs these sustained borrowing costs.

Fed Hawkish Repricing? More Hikes or Imminent Pivot?
The June FOMC's hawkish shock continues to reverberate: nine of 18 officials' dot plots point to a rate hike this year, and swap markets pulled forward the first hike from March 2027 to October, sending 2-year Treasury yields to their largest single-day surge since March. Goldman's Kaplan warns of two to three consecutive autumn increases. Citigroup stands alone on the other side, citing collapsing oil prices, rising jobless claims and calling for rate cuts as soon as October. Are you siding with the hawks, or betting on Citi's contrarian pivot call?
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