The market has begun repricing over the weekend.

EstherLearningTrades

Weekly:Fed Holds, Hormuz Reopens: Tech Rallies, Oil Crashes, BoJ Hits 31-Year High

The market has begun repricing over the weekend.

Expectations for another rate hike this year are rapidly rising.

The probability of a rate hike as early as September has increased significantly.

More and more funds are realizing that:

The most important task for the new Federal Reserve may not be stimulating the economy,

but rather rebuilding the credibility of the dollar.

If we enter a future characterized by:

rate hikes + balance sheet reduction,

then the market will find it difficult to maintain its current high valuation.

Meanwhile,

the Merrill Lynch Bull/Bear Index has reached extreme territory above 9.

Historically, whenever market sentiment is overheated,

there will be a 2-3% drop in the short term, with a maximum correction of 15-20%.

I'm not saying a bear market is imminent.

But I believe the risks of blindly chasing rallies far outweigh the potential gains.

While it's acceptable to be bearish on US stocks without shorting, I believe increasing cash holdings is absolutely necessary.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Holds, Hormuz Reopens: Tech Rallies, Oil Crashes, BoJ Hits 31-Year High \" target=\"_blank\">Weekly:Fed Holds, Hormuz Reopens: Tech Rallies, Oil Crashes, BoJ Hits 31-Year High </a></p>\n<p>The market has begun repricing over the weekend.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img data-image-type=\"kline\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c89a7cde9c070b966d81f39710b8a64\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"></p>\n<p>Expectations for another rate hike this year are rapidly rising.</p>\n<p>The probability of a rate hike as early as September has increased significantly.</p>\n<p>More and more funds are realizing that:</p>\n<p>The most important task for the new Federal Reserve may not be stimulating the economy,</p>\n<p>but rather rebuilding the credibility of the dollar.</p>\n<p>If we enter a future characterized by:</p>\n<p>rate hikes + balance sheet reduction,</p>\n<p>then the market will find it difficult to maintain its current high 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src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c89a7cde9c070b966d81f39710b8a64\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"></p>\n<p>Expectations for another rate hike this year are rapidly rising.</p>\n<p>The probability of a rate hike as early as September has increased significantly.</p>\n<p>More and more funds are realizing that:</p>\n<p>The most important task for the new Federal Reserve may not be stimulating the economy,</p>\n<p>but rather rebuilding the credibility of the dollar.</p>\n<p>If we enter a future characterized by:</p>\n<p>rate hikes + balance sheet reduction,</p>\n<p>then the market will find it difficult to maintain its current high valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile,</p>\n<p>the Merrill Lynch Bull/Bear Index has reached extreme territory above 9.</p>\n<p>Historically, whenever market sentiment is overheated,</p>\n<p>there will be a 2-3% drop in the short term, with a maximum correction of 15-20%.</p>\n<p>I'm not saying a bear market is imminent.</p>\n<p>But I believe the 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