Warzypants
07-10

For those who think Tesla's recent slide below $400 means that some sort of catastrophic dip it coming and support levels have been breached, and that Rivian is coming for Model Y, I'd just offer the following counter-points: 1. $Tsla closed around $405 today, so no real evidence of support being breached; Tesla is a far stronger company now in mid-July than it was in December 2025 when it was hitting ATH at around $490; Rivian, though they produce nice cars, is still nowhere near Tesla in volume production or economies of scale, and are still losing money; Tesla, on the other hand, just had a bumper quarter with Q2 earnings due July 22nd. Unlike Q1, when the stock drifted lower on an absence of near term catalysts, Q3 sees an abundance of them. So sell at your peril!

45 Cybercabs on the Road — Enough to Justify a $1.49 Trillion Autonomy Narrative?
Tesla rose 5.42%, then flat after hours: the session priced the launch, the after-hours the reality. Cybercab began carrying passengers in Austin with no wheel or pedals, invite-only, 45 cars; regulators opened a safety review. Waymo opened paid service in three cities the same day. Tesla is ~$1.49tn at ~350x, down 16% YTD, on 45 cars of proof. Bulls: demo-to-passengers is the threshold, owner-operators scale it without capex. Bears: 45 is nowhere near profitable, and a formal probe takes the timeline out of Tesla's hands. Tesla on miles driven, Waymo on paid cities, or wait on the regulator?
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