Payrolls Triple Forecasts — Why Did Rate-Hike Bets Barely Move?
August payrolls came in at 162,000, nearly 3x the 56,000 consensus and a five-month high; unemployment 4.1%, prior months revised up 55,000. Markets barely moved: hike odds went 50% to 52%, the 10-year up 3bp to 4.79%. Wages explain it: hourly earnings slowed to 3.1% YoY from 3.2%, though the monthly pace ticked back to 0.3%, leaving pricing power in next week's CPI. Equities split: S&P −0.38%, Dow −0.51%, Russell 2000 +0.25%, Microsoft −2.04%. The economy looks sturdier; the longest-duration assets lost their audience first. Trim mega-caps before CPI, or is strong payrolls a floor on its own?
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