$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$

Ignoring all the geopolitical issues, trump tariffs and SMCI shit news, $75 is a 2x-3x return from lows. Buybuybuy while we can! [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

1. Key Inputs from the Latest Announcement

• ⁠Q4 FY26 Preliminary Revenue: $11.0B (at the low end of $11.0B–$12.5B guidance).

• ⁠Gross Margin: 15.0% – 17.0% (vs. previous guidance of 8.2%–8.4%).

• ⁠New Orders Intake: >$60 Billion in Q4 alone, pushing backlog to record highs.

• ⁠Share Count: ~580M to 600M diluted shares (reflecting recent capital raises).

2. Updated Earnings Power Model (FY2027 Run-Rate)

Previously, Wall Street modeled SMCI as a low-margin assembler (~8% to 10% gross margins) producing thin operating margins (~4% to 5%).

If SMCI maintains a 12% to 14% normalized gross margin (conservatively assuming Q4's 15%–17% was a favorable mix peak that settles slightly lower), its bottom-line earnings power expands dramatically.

3. Fair Value Target Matrix

Historically, SMCI trades at a discount to peers like Dell and HPE due to corporate governance overhangs and margin volatility.

• ⁠Historical/Discounted P/E Multiplier: 8x – 10x forward earnings

• ⁠Peer Group Benchmark (Dell/HPE): 12x – 15x forward earnings

• ⁠Pure-Play AI Growth Multiplier: 16x – 20x forward earning

Target Valuation Summary

• ⁠Prior Stock Price (Pre-Announcement): ~$24.00 – $25.50

• ⁠Post-Announcement Pre-Market Price: ~$30.00 – $31.00 (+18% to +20% jump)

• ⁠Estimated Fundamental Fair Value: $65.00 – $75.00

Super Micro Jumps 19%, Optical Modules Follow — Who Benefits Most in AI Hardware?

AI hardware turned pre-earnings caution around. Super Micro +19.02% on EPS of $1.70 against a $0.98 estimate, even with revenue of $11.12 billion missing the $11.782 billion consensus — the sell side moved onto the gross-margin outlook, the exact thing it had been afraid of. Optical went with it: Lumentum +13.63% on EPS of $3.23 versus $3.03, revenue $1.006 billion; Coherent +8.24% into its own after-hours print. Applied Materials +4.29%, also reporting after the close — the first direct read on whether announced capacity turns into equipment orders.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Buybuybuy while we can! <span>[Cool]&nbsp;</span> <span>[Cool]&nbsp;</span> <span>[Cool]&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>1. Key Inputs from the Latest Announcement</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>• ⁠Q4 FY26 Preliminary Revenue: $11.0B (at the low end of $11.0B–$12.5B guidance).</p>\n<p>• ⁠Gross Margin: 15.0% – 17.0% (vs. previous guidance of 8.2%–8.4%).</p>\n<p>• ⁠New Orders Intake: &gt;$60 Billion in Q4 alone, pushing backlog to record highs.</p>\n<p>• ⁠Share Count: ~580M to 600M diluted shares (reflecting recent capital raises).</p>\n<p>2. Updated Earnings Power Model (FY2027 Run-Rate)</p>\n<p>Previously, Wall Street modeled SMCI as a low-margin assembler (~8% to 10% gross margins) producing thin operating margins (~4% to 5%).</p>\n<p>If SMCI maintains a 12% to 14% normalized gross margin (conservatively assuming Q4's 15%–17% was a favorable mix peak that settles slightly lower), its bottom-line earnings power expands dramatically.</p>\n<p>3. Fair Value Target Matrix</p>\n<p>Historically, SMCI trades at a discount to peers like Dell and HPE due to corporate governance overhangs and margin volatility.</p>\n<p>• ⁠Historical/Discounted P/E Multiplier: 8x – 10x forward earnings</p>\n<p>• ⁠Peer Group Benchmark (Dell/HPE): 12x – 15x forward earnings</p>\n<p>• ⁠Pure-Play AI Growth Multiplier: 16x – 20x forward earning</p>\n<p>Target Valuation Summary</p>\n<p>• ⁠Prior Stock Price (Pre-Announcement): ~$24.00 – $25.50</p>\n<p>• ⁠Post-Announcement Pre-Market Price: ~$30.00 – $31.00 (+18% to +20% jump)</p>\n<p>• ⁠Estimated Fundamental Fair Value: $65.00 – $75.00</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Ignoring all the geopolitical issues, trump tariffs and SMCI shit news, $75 is a 2x-3x return from lows. Buybuybuy while we can! <span>[Cool]&nbsp;</span> <span>[Cool]&nbsp;</span> <span>[Cool]&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>1. Key Inputs from the Latest Announcement</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>• ⁠Q4 FY26 Preliminary Revenue: $11.0B (at the low end of $11.0B–$12.5B guidance).</p>\n<p>• ⁠Gross Margin: 15.0% – 17.0% (vs. previous guidance of 8.2%–8.4%).</p>\n<p>• ⁠New Orders Intake: &gt;$60 Billion in Q4 alone, pushing backlog to record highs.</p>\n<p>• ⁠Share Count: ~580M to 600M diluted shares (reflecting recent capital raises).</p>\n<p>2. Updated Earnings Power Model (FY2027 Run-Rate)</p>\n<p>Previously, Wall Street modeled SMCI as a low-margin assembler (~8% to 10% gross margins) producing thin operating margins (~4% to 5%).</p>\n<p>If SMCI maintains a 12% to 14% normalized gross margin (conservatively assuming Q4's 15%–17% was a favorable mix peak that settles slightly lower), its bottom-line earnings power expands dramatically.</p>\n<p>3. 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Key Inputs from the Latest Announcement • ⁠Q4 FY26 Preliminary Revenue: $11.0B (at the low end of $11.0B–$12.5B guidance). • ⁠Gross Margin: 15.0% – 17.0% (vs. previous guidance of 8.2%–8.4%). • ⁠New Orders Intake: >$60 Billion in Q4 alone, pushing backlog to record highs. • ⁠Share Count: ~580M to 600M diluted shares (reflecting recent capital raises). 2. Updated Earnings Power Model (FY2027 Run-Rate) Previously, Wall Street modeled SMCI as a low-margin assembler (~8% to 10% gross margins) producing thin operating margins (~4% to 5%). If SMCI maintains a 12% to 14% normalized gross margin (conservatively assuming Q4's 15%–17% was a favorable mix peak that settles slightly lower), its bottom-line earnings power expands dramatically. 3. 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