OUST: Robotics is Really Just Getting Starting

MMMTWealth

07-23 14:38

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!

Just as bullish on $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost).

A reminder on how I see it at $180+

-> $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance).

-> 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA.

-> $Cognex(CGNX)$ traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth).

-> Give $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B.

> Add in $250M in net cash

-> 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is fair/conservative.

-> That gets you to ~$170

Slight tweaks either way get you a range ~$155-$195 I think over the next 3-4 years.

Robotics is really just getting starting...as is the entire AI trade.

But robotics even more so.

AI Companies and Industry DIG

AI is a marathon, not a sprint, it's a mega trend. Please share you Insights or comments on companies or technologies of AI industry.

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Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!\n\nJust as bullish on <a data-mention-id=\"OUST\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Ouster Inc.\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OUST\">$Ouster Inc.(OUST)$</a> today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost).\nA reminder on how I see it at $180+\n-&gt; $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance).\n-&gt; 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA.\n-&gt; <a data-mention-id=\"CGNX\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Cognex\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CGNX\">$Cognex(CGNX)$</a> traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth).\n-&gt; Give <a data-mention-id=\"OUST\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Ouster Inc.\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OUST\">$Ouster Inc.(OUST)$</a> a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B.\n&gt; Add in $250M in net cash\n-&gt; 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is fair/conservative.\n-&gt; That gets you to ~$170\nSlight tweaks either way get you a range ~$155-$195 I think over the next 3-4 years.\nRobotics is really just getting starting...as is the entire AI trade.\nBut robotics even more so.\n<img data-align=\"center\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e0a0a0f549f66b6951965419a44d263\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"794\"></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!\n\nJust as bullish on <a data-mention-id=\"OUST\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Ouster Inc.\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OUST\">$Ouster Inc.(OUST)$</a> today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost).\nA reminder on how I see it at $180+\n-&gt; $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance).\n-&gt; 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA.\n-&gt; <a data-mention-id=\"CGNX\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Cognex\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CGNX\">$Cognex(CGNX)$</a> traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth).\n-&gt; Give <a data-mention-id=\"OUST\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Ouster Inc.\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OUST\">$Ouster Inc.(OUST)$</a> a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B.\n&gt; Add in $250M in net cash\n-&gt; 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is fair/conservative.\n-&gt; That gets you to ~$170\nSlight tweaks either way get you a range ~$155-$195 I think over the next 3-4 years.\nRobotics is really just getting starting...as is the entire AI trade.\nBut robotics even more so.\n<img data-align=\"center\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e0a0a0f549f66b6951965419a44d263\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"794\"></body></html>","text":"Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Just as bullish on $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost). A reminder on how I see it at $180+ -> $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA. -> $Cognex(CGNX)$ traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth). -> Give $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B. > Add in $250M in net cash -> 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is fair/conservative. -> That gets you to ~$170 Slight tweaks either way get you a range ~$155-$195 I think over the next 3-4 years. Robotics is really just getting starting...as is the entire AI trade. But robotics even more so.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":44,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/588830873215304","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["CGNX","OUST"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":678,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/588830873215304"}