My $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ 2030 framework is pretty simple. I'm looking at three outcomes.
Most likely: Base Case
5-5.5GW
$32–38B revenue
50–60% Adj. EBITDA margin
13–18x EBITDA = roughly $650–$1,000/share
Bear Case:
4-4.5GW
$18-22B revenue
32-38% margin
10–14x EBITDA = $140-$280/share
Bull Case:
6GW+
$55-75B revenue
55-65% margin
15–22x EBITDA = $1,400-$2,500/share
With $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ around $188-$200 now, the base case alone still leaves serious upside into 2030. That's the part I'm watching.
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