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Within the broader monthly trend structure of the U.S. equity market, June ultimately closed in line with the general outlook presented in our May Monthly Investment Report, characterized by limited upward momentum alongside continued alternating fluctuations between advances and pullbacks. However, the magnitude and intensity of the downside movement during June developed more aggressively than originally anticipated.
As the market approached the latter part of June, downside pressure began gradually stabilizing, allowing the market to recover a meaningful portion of its earlier decline into the monthly close.
Despite this volatile environment, the broader monthly trend structure continues to remain within an uptrend at the present time. However, as previously discussed in earlier outlooks, we continue to believe that the market is now approaching a major transitional phase in which the monthly trend is likely to begin shifting into a corrective structure around the July–August period.
In many respects, the market now appears to be entering that inflection point.
Within this broader transition process, the weekly trend structure may still experience temporary upward momentum during July. However, we currently expect the sustainability of any short-term rally to become increasingly limited over time, while downside pressure gradually strengthens underneath the surface.
As a result, the probability of the weekly trend structure entering the Bearish Zone is expected to rise progressively during the coming months.
In particular, beginning around August, we believe the probability of a confirmed weekly Bearish Zone transition becomes significantly elevated. For this reason, the July period may increasingly require strategic short-term position rebalancing through profit-taking and defensive portfolio management during periods of weekly upward momentum.
If the broader corrective transition expected around July–August becomes fully confirmed, we currently anticipate that the monthly corrective trend could continue through approximately October.
Under this longer-term framework, rather than aggressively expanding long-term market exposure, we believe investors may benefit more from focusing on disciplined profit-taking, maintaining strategic patience, and preparing for more favorable low-price accumulation opportunities potentially emerging around the September–October period.
Additionally, within the context of an ongoing monthly corrective environment, investors may consider tactical short-term strategies centered around selective low-price buying during excessive daily or weekly declines, while utilizing short-term rebounds and rallies as opportunities for disciplined profit realization.
Looking further ahead, as the monthly corrective structure gradually approaches completion around the September–October timeframe, we continue to expect broader market stabilization to emerge, potentially allowing the market to begin transitioning back toward a longer-term bullish structure.
At this stage, November still appears likely to become the first clearly visible and confirmable period in which this broader bullish transition may emerge.
Importantly, our broader long-term outlook remains unchanged from previous reports.
If the market successfully re-enters a sustainable bullish trend during that period, we currently expect a stronger upward cycle to potentially continue into January 2027. From a strategic perspective, this may ultimately become one of the most important opportunities of the second half of this year for investors preparing for a larger long-term upward move.
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