$S&P 500(.SPX)$ just made new ATHs while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ is still stuck. History says we crash 20% from here. But here’s why we don’t 👇
This EXACT divergence has happened 3 times before. Once it led to a multi-year bull run. Twice it preceded 20%+ crashes. How could the same setup have such different results?
Here's how to tell which one you're dealing with:
🐻 2007 & 2018: One tired sector carried the index to its final high. Narrow leadership, no confirmation underneath. Both topped within months
🐂 2013: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ broke out while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ lagged its highs. Tech eventually caught up and the bull ran for YEARS
Right now?
$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$, $Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$, $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ are leading. Tech gets to sleep in while other key sectors push the market higher. History says this is 2013, not 2007
The number that validates it is 🎯 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 727
📈 Reclaim it = next stop is the ATH retest at 748, no resistance between here and there
📉 Fail it = you already know what 2007 and 2018 looked like
Everyone's staring at $S&P 500(.SPX)$ celebrating a high that tech hasn't even confirmed yet
727. Watch it.
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