Here's the Potential 3x Opportunity for AEVE

MMMTWealth
08-12

Here's the potential 3x opportunity for $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$:

1. OPTICS SEGMENT

Management are guiding for "millions and millions of units" likely giving them "multiple hundreds of millions" per annum in revs.

Conservatively, I think $300M by 2029 and $400M by 2030 is the range we're talking given H2 27 is the initial ramp up with a big production ramp up in 2028.

2. PERCEPTION BUSINESS

Still pre-scale but looking at ~$522M in revs as per analysts in FY29.

3. TOTAL REVS

Given the risks, I think it's sensible to work ~60-80% risking factors here.

60% * $822M = $493M in revs

80% * $822M = $657 in revs

4. SHARE DILUTION ESTIMATES

Current share count is at 69.7M.

SBC is unavoidable at this stage. 3-4M shares per annum vesting over 3 years -> potential 10-12M in shares.

At $125M annual cash burn and $180M in cash, I think modelling in 2 raises seems sensible. Assuming $125M raises at $25-$35 share price -> another 12-14M shares.

Warrants and options -> another 10-12M shares.

2029 estimated share count is therefore just above 100M.

Using the 60% risking factor, $657M in revs * a 12x multiple (fair given $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$, $Lumentum(LITE)$, $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ multiples, improved profitability, and 171% CAGR from today).

12x * $657M = $7.8B

$7.8B / 100M (share count) = $78 share price

That's a 3.25x from today.

(Note these are assumptions that I have tried to make with conservative risking factors).

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