S&P 500 JUST BROKE ABOVE 7,800

S&P 500 JUST BROKE ABOVE 7,800 FOR FIRST TIME EVERY

The biggest cause of this is that the two-year yield fell to 4.14% and September hike odds dropped from ~50% to ~35% after payrolls lost 23K jobs versus +83K expected while CPI held at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core.

That rate repricing matters because the 90-day correlation between yields and stocks is near its most negative since 1996 helping the Nasdaq rebound nearly 9% from its July low after semiconductors fell 19% in their worst month since 2008.

The rally also has real fundamental support with S&P earnings tracking ~28% growth and forward EPS estimates still rising but leadership remains concentrated as $NVDA, $MU and $AAPL drive an outsized share of gains while the Magnificent Seven ETF is up only ~5% this year.

The setup stays bullish while rates and earnings cooperate but oil near $81, Hormuz risk and a labor market where unemployment fell partly because people left the workforce are the key cracks to watch.

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That rate repricing matters because the 90-day correlation between yields and stocks is near its most negative since 1996 helping the Nasdaq rebound nearly 9% from its July low after semiconductors fell 19% in their worst month since 2008. The rally also has real fundamental support with S&P earnings tracking ~28% growth and forward EPS estimates still rising but leadership remains concentrated as $NVDA, $MU and $AAPL drive an outsized share of gains while the Magnificent Seven ETF is up only ~5% this year. 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