Regarding $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ 's recent surge, I'm leaning towards a more optimistic outlook.
However, this optimism led to a sharp rise, making it a bit high in the short term. Therefore, I opened a short position in $SNDK.
For highly volatile stocks like SanDisk, I now prioritize two things when choosing trading tools: whether I can act immediately upon news releases, and whether I can open a position when I actually need to.
I've found MEXC quite convenient. SNDKUSDT allows 24/7 trading, and the position sizes at medium to high leverage levels are quite generous.
For US stocks, which often experience sudden news releases and volatility before and after the market opens, I think this is more practical than simply increasing leverage.
First, let's talk about the macro environment.
PPI was 0% month-on-month, lower than the expected +0.2%, and the CPI didn't worsen the previous day. Considering the recent weak employment data, at least in the short term, there's no further macro pressure on risk assets.
Then there's SanDisk's own Investor Day.
Strictly speaking, SanDisk isn't one of the three major storage providers. When we talk about the "Big Three" – Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron – we're primarily referring to them within the DRAM context.
SanDisk's core business leans more towards NAND Flash. While there's competition between the two and they're in the same memory cycle, their product structures and business logics aren't entirely identical.
However, in terms of market popularity and trading activity, SanDisk is in no way inferior to the Big Three.
Samsung and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ are mainly traded in the South Korean market, which isn't as convenient for those who only trade US stocks.
When comparing them within the US stock market, it's more about MU and SNDK.
My own observation over this period is quite clear: SNDK is more volatile than $Micron Technology(MU)$ .
It rises more sharply, but falls just as quickly.
Therefore, if Micron is more suitable for observing the overall memory cycle and DRAM/HBM industry trends, then SanDisk is a very suitable stock for observing NAND + AI data center demand + memory cycle trading sentiment.
This is why I've been keeping an eye on it.
This Investor Day, my biggest concern is whether SanDisk can sustain its current high profit margins.
The biggest problem with storage in the past has been its cyclicality.
Now, AI is bringing new demand for data centers and Enterprise SSDs to SanDisk, and the company is trying to lock in some future demand more stably through long-term agreements.
In SanDisk's latest financial report, data centers have become the fastest-growing end market, with Q4 data center revenue reaching $2.977 billion, a 103% increase quarter-over-quarter. The company has also explicitly listed it as a core pillar of long-term growth.
If this holds true, then SanDisk's future logic won't just be about riding the rollercoaster of NAND prices, but about trying to stabilize some cyclical businesses.
Of course, I won't suddenly chase highs just because of an Investor Day.
Its volatility inherently means that the opportunities and risks are doubled.
My first resistance level for $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ is still $1580-$1600.
Therefore, my positioning of SanDisk has always been clear: it's not one of the three major storage companies, but if you only look at storage trading opportunities in the US stock market, it's currently a stock that cannot be ignored.
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