I would stay invested in AI and semiconductors, but avoid aggressively adding at these levels. The macro backdrop has improved, but the market has already priced in a lot of good news.
The S&P 500 is coming off another record close, while July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first decline in nine months. Combined with benign CPI/PPI and weaker employment, this strengthens the case for a September Fed hold.
My preference would be:
1. Keep AI/semis: The secular earnings story remains strong, although valuations and expectations are high. Applied Materials' 5% drop despite good guidance is a reminder that even strong AI-related results can disappoint when expectations are extreme.
2. Gradually rotate into financials/consumer: Not a wholesale switch, but these sectors offer diversification if the economy achieves a soft landing.
3. Wait for the FOMC minutes before making a major move: The three dissenting members favouring a hike make the minutes particularly important. The market wants to know whether that hawkish minority is isolated or indicative of broader concern about inflation.
So, hold core AI/semiconductor positions, selectively add elsewhere, and keep some cash available. I would rather buy a pullback than chase the S&P 500 immediately after another record. The current setup is bullish, but increasingly dependent on the Fed remaining supportive and earnings continuing to justify elevated valuations.
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