Ben Tiger
08-23

Micron Technology (MU)

Recent Q3 FY2026 results (ended May 2026) were exceptional: revenue ~$41.5B (+346% YoY), adjusted EPS ~$25.11 (well above estimates), and gross margins ~84.6%. Guidance for Q4 points to ~$50B revenue and ~$31 EPS, with margins near 86%. Long-term supply agreements (including take-or-pay contracts and deposits) lock in multi-year demand; HBM4 volume shipments are ramping. Capex is rising sharply ($27B in FY2026, higher in 2027) to expand capacity.

Shares have surged hundreds of percent over the past year (market cap >$1T) but pulled back from peaks near $1,255 to around $960–$970 recently amid broader AI volatility and some NAND cooling signs. Valuation remains attractive (forward P/E in the low-to-mid teens/single digits on elevated earnings), with analyst targets implying 50%+ upside

Future potential: Strong. Structural AI memory demand (HBM and high-bandwidth needs) should support elevated pricing and margins for several years. Risks include eventual supply response and cyclical pricing. Positive for AI-exposed portfolios seeking memory leverage.

Micron Reclaims $1 Trillion Market Cap — Memory Rebound or Reversal?
Memory ran hard. $MU +4.92%, SK Hynix +9.01%, $SNDK +5.76%, $SOXL +6.89%. The bull case has three legs: risk appetite after CPI, Micron management saying AI memory tightness can run past 2027 — which had UBS calling a structural reset in through-cycle profitability — and the sell side following it up. The bear case is supply and guidance: CXMT is adding capacity, and SanDisk and Western Digital both fell two sessions after beating, on outlook. Same chips, opposite conclusions — the argument isn't demand any more, it's who gets to set the price.
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