Lanceljx
08-25

I would use the pullback to add QQQ gradually, rather than trim broadly. Monday’s weakness was concentrated in tech and semiconductors, while the Dow actually gained, suggesting rotation rather than a full risk-off break. 


The catch is timing. Nvidia reports Wednesday and remains a major sentiment test for the entire AI complex, while Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut comes Friday amid unusually high sensitivity to long-end Treasury yields. That makes an all-in QQQ purchase before Wednesday unnecessarily binary.


My approach: add perhaps one-third now, keep another third for a post-Nvidia sell-off, and the remainder until after Jackson Hole. I would not sell Meta or Alphabet simply to avoid this week’s volatility. If Nvidia delivers strong guidance and long yields stabilise, QQQ could rebound quickly. If either disappoints, keeping cash gives you ammunition at better prices.


So between the two choices: **add QQQ on weakness, but stagger the entry.**

Fed Chair Warsh Speaks Tonight — Will He Give Markets a Direction?
Jackson Hole runs August 27–29, themed "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," with Warsh speaking 10 p.m. Beijing on the 28th. Thursday may have front-run it: QQQ +1.37%, spot gold +1.12% to $4,649, Bitcoin +2.96% to $81,370. Equities, gold and crypto rising together is a bet on liquidity and the dollar, not on any one asset's fundamentals. With payments and digital assets on the official agenda, his remarks may land harder on stablecoins than on the indices. Does he shift the rate path — and are you watching equities, gold, or BTC?
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Comments

  • CaesarHicks
    08-25
    CaesarHicks
    Staggered entry makes sense. QQQ probably needs a cleaner post-Nvidia reset before the second tranche really feels attractive
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