26 August 2026

US stocks closed higher as easing US–Iran tensions pushed oil prices and long-term Treasury yields lower. Technology stocks rebounded ahead of NVIDIA’s highly anticipated earnings.

S&P 500: +0.32% to 7,677.28

Dow Jones: +0.30% to 53,577.40

Nasdaq: +0.66% to 26,151.30

US 2-Year Treasury Yield: Down around 3 bps to 4.21%

US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Down around 7 bps to 4.64%, its lowest level since early August

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1. Progress on the Strait of Hormuz, but a Full Reopening Is Not Confirmed

• Reports suggest that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary understanding on parts of a ceasefire agreement, including freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, no comprehensive agreement has been formally signed.

• Iran and Oman proposed establishing a joint temporary shipping corridor and clearing mines to facilitate a gradual resumption of maritime traffic.

• Technical discussions will continue, with the longer-term goal of creating a permanent shipping route and framework for managing the strait.

• Iran stressed that a temporary corridor does not mean an unconditional reopening. It continues to demand sanctions relief and US compliance with earlier commitments.

• The US is reportedly considering returning some diplomats to the Middle East, while Pakistan has proposed phased sanctions relief in exchange for restored shipping access.

• Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried approximately 20% of global oil and LNG shipments. Any progress could therefore reduce the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.

• Brent crude fell more than 6% intraday before closing 3.9% lower at US$88.58 per barrel. However, recent attacks on tankers indicate that security risks have not completely disappeared.

Market Impact: Lower oil prices may ease inflation, bond yields and corporate costs, benefiting technology, consumer, airline and transportation stocks. Energy stocks may face near-term pressure.

Positive Counterpoint: Even without a final agreement, the proposed shipping corridor and renewed diplomatic engagement reduce the risk of a prolonged supply disruption.

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2. US Consumer Confidence Weakens as the Fed Retains the Option to Raise Rates

• The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index fell from a revised 90.2 to 89.4 in August, its lowest level since January.

• The Present Situation Index rose 6.8 points to 121.2, suggesting that consumers’ assessment of current business and employment conditions improved.

• However, the Expectations Index dropped 5.8 points to 68.2 as households became more pessimistic about future employment, income and economic conditions.

• One-year inflation expectations increased from 5.6% to 5.8%, reflecting continued concerns over energy, food, war and tariffs.

• Boston Fed President Susan Collins said keeping rates unchanged requires continued evidence that inflation is moving lower.

• If sustained inflation progress does not materialise, Collins believes the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy soon.

• Canada announced retaliatory tariffs of between 15% and 50% on more than 700 US products worth approximately US$20 billion. The measures will take effect on 8 September.

Market Impact: Weaker confidence, possible rate hikes and escalating US–Canada trade tensions raise the risk of slower growth alongside persistent inflation.

Positive Counterpoint: Consumers’ assessment of current employment conditions improved, while lower oil prices could help reduce inflation and lessen the need for another Fed rate hike.

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3. Anthropic Targets a Mega IPO as SpaceX Expands AI Infrastructure

• Anthropic reportedly plans to present investors with a potential long-term market exceeding US$30 trillion, covering enterprise software, AI agents, cloud computing and the automation of knowledge work.

• The company may target an IPO valuation of around US$2 trillion and raise as much as US$100 billion. These remain reported targets rather than final terms.

• Anthropic reportedly expects 2028 revenue to reach approximately US$190–200 billion, meaning the proposed valuation depends heavily on continued rapid growth.

• The company is strengthening its legal, financial, governance and investor-relations capabilities ahead of a potential mega listing.

• SpaceX plans to invest US$100 billion in a 125,000-acre launch complex in Louisiana known as Starbase Louisiana.

• Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first launch targeted for 2029. The development could create more than 3,000 jobs.

• SpaceX also plans to launch its first NVIDIA-powered orbital data-centre satellites in the fourth quarter of 2027 and achieve meaningful scale in 2028.

Market Impact: These developments reinforce the AI infrastructure and capital-raising boom, but extreme valuations, heavy capital expenditure and execution risks remain concerns.

Positive Counterpoint: If enterprise AI and orbital computing demand materialise, semiconductor, networking, power, data-centre and aerospace suppliers could enjoy longer-term order visibility.

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4. Apple, OpenAI and NVIDIA Intensify the AI Chip Race

• Apple introduced its first 2nm M6 chip alongside an upgraded Mac mini, claiming up to four times faster AI performance, 40% faster CPU performance and twice the graphics performance.

• Apple also launched the four-chiplet M5 Ultra, offering up to a 36-core CPU, 80-core GPU, 512GB of unified memory and 1.2TB/s of memory bandwidth.

• OpenAI unveiled Jalapeño, an inference ASIC developed with Broadcom. Limited deployment is planned for late 2026, followed by increased production in 2027.

• In OpenAI-selected benchmarks, Jalapeño delivered approximately 1.5–1.9 times more work per watt and 1.7–3.6 times lower latency than NVIDIA’s GB200 and GB300 systems.

• These results are workload-specific and do not mean that Jalapeño is superior across every AI application.

• NVIDIA introduced Jetson Orin Nano 2, delivering twice the inference performance while consuming 40% less power at the same performance level.

• NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin NVL72 also delivered up to 30 times more work per watt than Grace Blackwell NVL72 in selected DeepSeek workloads.

Market Impact: The growth of custom AI chips increases competitive pressure on NVIDIA but may benefit Broadcom, TSMC, advanced-packaging suppliers and semiconductor-equipment companies.

Positive Counterpoint: AI computing demand is expanding beyond training into inference, personal computers, robotics and orbital computing. The growing market means the competition does not have to be zero-sum.

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What to Watch Today

Major US Data:

• July headline and core PCE inflation

• July personal income and consumer spending

• Second estimate of US Q2 GDP

• July preliminary durable-goods orders

Key Technology Earnings After Market Close:

• NVIDIA

• Salesforce

• CrowdStrike

• Okta

PCE inflation will influence interest-rate expectations, while NVIDIA’s Rubin demand, margins, customer financing and forward guidance could determine whether the AI-led market rebound continues.

Source: Reuters, AP, Conference Board, Boston Fed, BEA, Apple, NVIDIA

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For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.