Lanceljx
08-26 12:44

I would wait for the data rather than chase the oil-driven growth rally. The demining of Hormuz is genuinely positive, and Iran-Oman talks on a temporary shipping corridor could further reduce the geopolitical premium. But actual oil flows remain far below pre-war levels, while attacks on vessels continue.


At the same time, Bessent’s expanded sanctions covering shipping, gold, digital assets and other sectors could tighten Iran’s financial pressure substantially.


So cheaper oil is bullish for growth and inflation expectations, but I would want confirmation from shipping flows and diplomacy before rotating aggressively. I would keep core growth exposure, avoid chasing energy after geopolitical spikes, and retain some energy as a hedge. The risk premium has compressed, not disappeared.

Fed Chair Warsh Speaks Tonight — Will He Give Markets a Direction?
Jackson Hole runs August 27–29, themed "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," with Warsh speaking 10 p.m. Beijing on the 28th. Thursday may have front-run it: QQQ +1.37%, spot gold +1.12% to $4,649, Bitcoin +2.96% to $81,370. Equities, gold and crypto rising together is a bet on liquidity and the dollar, not on any one asset's fundamentals. With payments and digital assets on the official agenda, his remarks may land harder on stablecoins than on the indices. Does he shift the rate path — and are you watching equities, gold, or BTC?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • blinxz
    08-26 14:03
    blinxz
    Tanker tonnage through Hormuz looks closer to roughly 65% of prewar levels, but average speeds are still down around 15%, so the flow headline is lagging the route reopening
Leave a comment
1