苏36
08-26
I remain cautiously bullish on gold. Treasury buybacks are a meaningful liquidity signal, but their size is still too small to solve America’s deeper fiscal problems. The bigger story remains huge debt, persistent deficits, inflation risks and elevated long-term yields.

Gold’s quick reaction shows investors are becoming more sensitive to fiscal and liquidity signals. But this doesn’t automatically make the rally sustainable. If yields rebound or the dollar strengthens, gold could face sharp profit-taking.

My view: gold still has room to run, especially if real yields decline, but chasing every spike is dangerous. I’d rather buy pullbacks and watch Treasury yields, the dollar and inflation expectations for confirmation.

@WallStreet_Tiger [龇牙]

Gold Hits Three-Month High — Is Dalio's 15% Allocation Call Right?
Gold is turning the debasement thesis into price. Spot gold +0.87% to $4,647, its highest since mid-May. U.S. proxies led Friday: GLD +1.95%, GDX +2.98%, Newmont +3.09%; Zhaojin Mining +2.98% in Hong Kong today. After the Treasury's buyback expansion, yields and the dollar fell — the market pricing fiscal sustainability, not rate direction. Dalio warns of a debt crisis within years, advising 10–15% in gold. Against it: January's $5,608 record makes this a recovery, not a breakout, and hawkish Warsh or a hot July PCE lifts real rates. GLD, GDX and Newmont, or gold as a core weight per Dalio?
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