Mortimer Arthur
08-31

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ Bears keep acting like Supermicro is the only AI infrastructure company facing regulatory scrutiny. It isn't.

NVDA has antitrust scrutiny. MSFT has FTC scrutiny over its AI and cloud practices. AMZN and AWS face EU cloud competition scrutiny. GOOGL has multiple regulatory investigations.

Now look at what SMCI is actually producing:

FY2026 revenue of $39.1 billion, compared with $22.0 billion last year. Nearly 78% YoY revenue growth. Q4 non-GAAP gross margin of 17.6%. Massive AI infrastructure demand. Record order and backlog momentum. Deep exposure to NVIDIA, AMD, and the broader AI buildout.

And the independent Special Committee investigation found no evidence of misconduct or fraud by management or the Board, and did not substantiate the major allegations being thrown around.

Then there's valuation.

SMCI continues to trade at a substantial discount to many companies benefiting from the exact same AI infrastructure boom.

Give a company producing this kind of growth even a 25x earnings valuation and the implied value can approach roughly $86 per share based on the earnings assumptions discussed here.

That's the disconnect.

The market is pricing SMCI like the AI boom is passing it by, while the company is generating nearly $40 billion in annual revenue and growing at an extraordinary rate.

Investigations are not convictions. Regulatory scrutiny isn't unique to SMCI.

Eventually, revenue, margins, backlog, earnings, and AI demand will show up in valuation. The numbers will have the final word.

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