Lanceljx
08-31

I would choose tech, but add gradually rather than chase.


Warsh’s message materially changes the near-term regime. He explicitly said 2% PCE is a “firm, fixed target”, financial conditions are not broadly restrictive, labour markets are consistent with full employment, and inflation progress has been modest. Markets now price roughly a 60% probability of a September hike, while Barclays has shifted to expecting September and December hikes. 


My ranking would be Tech > Gold > BTC for the next several months. Tech faces valuation compression from higher yields, but AI capex and earnings growth provide a fundamental earnings anchor. Gold remains attractive structurally, but after its enormous run, a stronger dollar and rising real yields could force further consolidation. Bitcoin is the most vulnerable of the three if the Fed genuinely resumes tightening because it has neither earnings nor yield to cushion tighter liquidity.


The important caveat is that September is not decided. August CPI and employment data arrive before the 15-16 September FOMC meeting. A sufficiently soft inflation print could unwind part of Friday's hawkish repricing and produce a sharp relief rally across all three. 


So I would DCA into quality tech on weakness, hold existing gold rather than chase it, and keep BTC exposure smallest. The 2-year yield is probably the cleanest signal to watch now. If it continues climbing, all three remain under pressure, with BTC likely carrying the greatest downside beta.

A Dove Breaks Fed Hawk Chorus — Can S&P's Best Day in a Month Survive Tonight's Jobs Report?
Waller broke weeks of hawkish pressure: he backs holding rates while progress toward 2% continues. Hike odds this month fell 70% to 50%, the 10-year 4.81% to 4.74%. S&P +1.06%, Dow +614 points, best day in a month: Microsoft +2.68%, Meta +3.01%. Ease the pressure and the priciest assets bounce first. But this dove is on loan: the range is still 3.50–3.75%, three members backed a hike in July, and September 16 is live. Tonight's payrolls decide: consensus +56,000 after July's −23,000, and hourly earnings at +3.0% is what matters. Call peak rates before the data, or trust only the hold?
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Comments

  • yansuji
    08-31
    yansuji
    2Y is the cleaner tell, agreed. Early in tightening it usually hits tech multiples harder than late-cycle, and right now it still feels more like the former.
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