TheMarketLens101
09-01 19:10

📅 SEPTEMBER 2026 MARKET WATCHLIST

“Sell in May and buy in September” does not mean investors should automatically buy on 1 September.

Historically, September has been one of the market’s more volatile and weaker months. However, that volatility may also create better entry opportunities ahead of the traditionally stronger October–April period.

🔴 KEY MACRO DATES

• 4 Sep: U.S. Jobs Report

• 10 Sep: Producer Price Index

• 11 Sep: Consumer Price Index

• 16 Sep: Retail Sales + FOMC decision

• 30 Sep: PCE inflation + Q2 GDP

These events will shape inflation expectations, Treasury yields, Fed policy and equity valuations.

📊 EARNINGS CATALYSTS

• 2 Sep: Broadcom

• 3 Sep: Zscaler + Lululemon

• 8–14 Sep: Oracle — TBC

• 10 Sep: Adobe — TBC

• 24 Sep: Costco

• 30 Sep: Micron

Broadcom and Micron will test demand across AI chips, custom ASICs, networking and memory. Oracle and Adobe will show whether AI investment is translating into cloud and software revenue, while Costco and Lululemon provide a read on consumer resilience.

The September setup is straightforward:

Macro decides valuations. Earnings test AI demand.

If inflation cools while corporate earnings and AI demand remain strong, a September pullback could offer an attractive opportunity to position for the stronger year-end period.

If inflation stays hot or the Fed turns more hawkish, volatility may continue before a durable entry point emerges.

Save this calendar and watch the sequence—not just the individual headlines.

Rate-Hike Odds Jump From 40% to 70% in a Week — Time to Reprice AI Capex at 4.8%?
Rates were the story: the 10-year broke 4.8%, back to Oct 2023 levels, the 30-year hit 5.29%. Dow −419 points, S&P 500 −0.71%, QQQ −1.27%. The Iran standoff held Brent above $90 a third session; Warsh repeated his anti-inflation line while Barr signalled a hike if inflation stalls, taking odds of a hike this month from ~40% to ~70% in a week. Microsoft −1.24%, its $41bn capex now discounted at 4.8%; Nvidia −1.51%, Nebius −3.29%, Oracle ~−4%. Wednesday's ADP and Friday's payrolls (~45,000 consensus) decide. Rotate to cash-flow certainty before payrolls, or call the rate jump noise?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • vippy
    09-01 19:52
    vippy
    Macro is the key for September, but retail sales matters just as much for the soft-landing read. If consumer demand cracks, rate path pricing gets messy fast.
Leave a comment
1