1 September 2026

Renewed US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices and long-term Treasury yields higher, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance strengthened expectations of a September rate hike, sending all three major US indices lower—although they still ended August with monthly gains.

S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 7,686.14

Dow Jones fell 0.70% to 53,185.90

Nasdaq fell 0.12% to 26,370.89

US 2-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.348%

US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 3.6 basis points to 4.757%

Market data: Reuters⁠ | Treasury data: WSJ⁠

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News

1) US-Iran hostilities resume, raising risks around the Strait of Hormuz

* The US struck Iranian missile-launch facilities on Larak Island, marking the first direct military exchange between the two sides in a month.

* Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases in Jordan and claimed to have attacked other American military facilities in the region.

* Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said a supertanker caught fire and stopped after hitting two mines while attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

* However, the vessel’s identity and the extent of the damage have not been independently confirmed.

* President Trump said the US would “hit Iran hard” and posted a video purporting to show an attack on Kharg Island. US officials later confirmed that the AI-generated video did not depict a real strike.

* Vice-President JD Vance said the video was intended to “send a message” to Iran. Before the conflict, Kharg Island handled around 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

* Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran did not want a return to full-scale war and called on the US to return to the interim ceasefire memorandum, suggesting diplomatic channels remain open.

* Brent crude briefly traded above US$91 before settling at approximately US$90.49, while WTI closed at US$85.76. Reuters⁠

Market impact: Higher oil prices could raise transportation and production costs, intensify inflationary pressure and increase the likelihood of a September Fed rate hike, weighing on growth stocks and long-duration assets.

Positive counterpoint: Neither side appears to want a full-scale war, while Iran is still calling for negotiations. A return to the ceasefire framework could quickly reduce oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums.

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2) Warsh remains hawkish but sees stronger investment and productivity growth

* Warsh told G20 leaders that the previous era of a “global savings glut” is turning into a “global investment surge.”

* Capital is increasingly flowing into AI data centres and other productive investments rather than remaining in low-yielding assets.

* He believes the idea of prolonged economic stagnation may no longer apply and that US potential growth and productivity could exceed traditional forecasts.

* However, increased competition for capital from AI infrastructure projects means Treasury bonds may need to offer higher yields to attract investors.

* Warsh previously said the Fed would still have “work to do” if policymakers were not confident that inflation was returning to the 2% target.

* Interest-rate futures now indicate a greater than 65% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September. Reuters⁠

* Trump continued to argue that the US should have among the world’s lowest interest rates, but said he respected Warsh and believed he would “do what he has to do.” Reuters⁠

* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said US economic growth remains strong and that US Treasuries have outperformed major global peers this year. The Treasury will increase certain long-term bond buybacks to US$4 billion per operation from 10 September to reduce market volatility. Reuters⁠

Market impact: Hawkish monetary policy and higher long-term yields could continue to pressure high-valuation technology stocks, property-related assets and bond prices.

Positive counterpoint: Warsh believes part of the rise in yields reflects stronger investment, AI infrastructure development and productivity—not simply economic weakness. If corporate earnings rise alongside investment, equities could remain supported by fundamentals.

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3) OpenAI reportedly purchased tens of thousands of Macs for AI reinforcement learning

* According to The Information, OpenAI purchased tens of thousands of Mac mini and Mac Studio computers over the past several months.

* The machines are mainly being used for reinforcement learning and to train computer-use agents.

* These agents are designed to navigate interfaces, write and test code, organise emails and complete multi-step tasks.

* OpenAI reportedly purchased desktop Macs without displays or keyboards so they can operate as dedicated computing nodes rather than ordinary employee workstations.

* Apple Silicon’s unified-memory architecture, large memory capacity and relatively low power consumption make it suitable for local models, agent testing and certain reinforcement-learning workloads.

* Anthropic is also reportedly renting Mac computing capacity through AWS, indicating that AI laboratories are expanding beyond traditional data-centre GPUs.

* Neither OpenAI nor Apple has officially confirmed the reported number of units or the value of the purchases. The “tens of thousands” figure therefore remains a media report based on unnamed sources. The Information⁠

* This does not mean Apple has replaced Nvidia. Macs are entering local AI, computer-agent and specialised reinforcement-learning workloads, while Nvidia GPUs remain central to large-scale model training and data-centre computing. Anthropic also signed a cloud-computing agreement worth around US$35 billion with Nvidia-backed Lambda, showing that both types of computing can coexist. Reuters⁠

Market impact: AI computing demand is broadening from centralised GPU training into local AI, inference and computer-use agents, which may lead investors to reassess the competitive relationship between Apple and Nvidia.

Positive counterpoint: This appears to be an expansion of the overall AI computing market rather than a zero-sum shift. Apple could capture enterprise AI hardware demand, while Nvidia continues to dominate large-scale training and the data-centre ecosystem.

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4) Tim Cook steps down as Apple CEO ahead of the September product launch

* Tim Cook completed his 15-year tenure as Apple CEO on 31 August.

* Former hardware engineering chief John Ternus officially became CEO on 1 September and joined Apple’s board.

* Cook has not left Apple entirely. He has transitioned to executive chairman and will continue assisting with selected strategic and global policy matters.

* Ternus has worked at Apple for approximately 25 years and has been closely involved in developing the Mac, iPad, iPhone and Apple Silicon.

* His appointment suggests Apple will continue to strengthen its core advantages in devices, hardware and proprietary chips. Apple⁠

* Apple has confirmed a product launch event for 9 September, which will be Ternus’s first major event as CEO.

* Apple has confirmed that a new generation of iPhones will be unveiled. The market expects the iPhone 18 Pro series and potentially Apple’s first foldable iPhone, although the exact products have yet to be officially confirmed. Reuters⁠

* Apple recently introduced an upgraded Mac mini featuring the M6 or M5 Pro and a new Mac Studio featuring the M5 Max or M5 Ultra. The products will become available on 22 September and are targeted at local AI and professional computing workloads. Apple⁠

Market impact: The leadership transition could create some short-term uncertainty, while the pricing, supply and initial demand for a potential foldable iPhone will influence expectations for Apple’s next growth cycle.

Positive counterpoint: Cook’s continued role as executive chairman should support a smooth transition, while Ternus’s hardware experience, rising AI-related Mac demand and the September product cycle could provide Apple with fresh growth catalysts.

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Daily

Major developments to watch

* The G20 finance ministers and central-bank governors’ meeting continues, with attention on further comments from Warsh and Bessent regarding inflation, growth, the Treasury market and sanctions on Iran.

* Monitor the US response to Iran’s latest attacks, tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and changes in oil prices.

* John Ternus officially assumes his role as Apple CEO, with investors watching for any changes to the company’s AI and product strategy.

Major US data releases

10:00 a.m. ET / 10:00 p.m. Singapore time

* July JOLTS job openings: A key indicator of whether labour demand remains strong enough to support further rate increases. US Bureau of Labor Statistics⁠

* August ISM Manufacturing PMI: Focus will be on new orders, employment and prices-paid components.

* July construction spending: Provides insight into the effects of higher interest rates on residential and non-residential investment.

Major earnings

* Before market: NIO

* After market: Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks and MongoDB

* Key areas to watch include Dell’s AI server orders and margins, Palo Alto Networks’ next-generation security ARR, and MongoDB Atlas cloud growth.