Lanceljx
09-02

I would rotate modestly toward cash-flow certainty, not abandon growth. A 10-year yield near 4.8% is more than noise: it raises the discount rate on long-duration AI earnings and makes debt-funded capex increasingly expensive. With oil adding another inflation impulse and September hike odds now around two-thirds, richly valued tech has less room for disappointment.


But payrolls are the potential circuit-breaker. A genuinely weak jobs print could pull yields back quickly and revive duration-sensitive tech. So rather than chase the bond selloff, I would favour profitable, cash-generative companies and keep some dry powder. If payrolls surprise stronger, 5% on the 10-year becomes a much more uncomfortable possibility. If they disappoint sharply, today's tech weakness could become the entry point.

A Dove Breaks Fed Hawk Chorus — Can S&P's Best Day in a Month Survive Tonight's Jobs Report?
Waller broke weeks of hawkish pressure: he backs holding rates while progress toward 2% continues. Hike odds this month fell 70% to 50%, the 10-year 4.81% to 4.74%. S&P +1.06%, Dow +614 points, best day in a month: Microsoft +2.68%, Meta +3.01%. Ease the pressure and the priciest assets bounce first. But this dove is on loan: the range is still 3.50–3.75%, three members backed a hike in July, and September 16 is live. Tonight's payrolls decide: consensus +56,000 after July's −23,000, and hourly earnings at +3.0% is what matters. Call peak rates before the data, or trust only the hold?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • JudithGrant
    09-02
    JudithGrant
    I agree on favoring cash flow, but rates already reflect a decent chunk of the inflation scare. The bigger question is whether term premium keeps doing the heavy lifting here
Leave a comment
1