atehpengaday
09-03

While the sharp surge in 10-year Treasury yields past 4.8% and spiking rate-hike odds (~70%) reflect real market anxiety over stickier inflation and elevated energy costs, writing off tech and AI capex completely would be premature. Market caps and valuation multiples for long-duration tech will certainly compress under higher discount rates in the short term, but cash-generative mega-caps (like Microsoft and Nvidia) fund the bulk of their massive AI infrastructure out of robust operating cash flows rather than expensive debt markets. While rotating into high-cash-flow defensive names or holding energy as a tactical hedge is a sound defensive strategy ahead of ADP and payroll data, the structural thesis and multi-year capex commitments for AI infrastructure remain heavily intact beyond short-term Fed policy swings.

Brent, WTI Both Top $100 — Can U.S. Stocks Hold Until CPI Cools?
Oil did the damage: Houthi forces took the Red Sea port of Mukha and moved on Bab-el-Mandeb, and Brent and WTI both cleared $100. QQQ −1.06%, SPY −0.60%, S&P −0.58%; among megacaps only Google rose, +0.61%, against Meta −1.42% and Tesla −1.16%. August PPI +0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY beat 5.3% and accelerated from 4.7%, but core held at 0.2% and 4.6% — diesel alone jumped 24.1%. Markets briefly priced a full October hike. CPI lands 20:30 Beijing, consensus 0.4% headline, 0.2% core. Energy inflation rarely moves policy; $100 oil is a cost that stays. Trim tech first, or hedge with energy and gold?
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Comments

  • feelond
    09-03
    feelond
    DCF sensitivity is the real pain here. For AI names, small changes in terminal assumptions get brutal fast even before the actual capex thesis breaks.
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