苏36
09-03
My Take: Expectations Matter More Than Earnings

This earnings night shows a crucial market lesson: a stock doesn’t trade on how good the results are—it trades on how good they are versus expectations.

SNOW was the biggest surprise because growth re-accelerated, product revenue jumped 37%, and full-year guidance was raised. Investors weren’t positioned for that combination, so the upside was explosive.

AVGO was different. Its numbers were phenomenal, with AI semiconductor revenue soaring 221%, but expectations were already extreme. A tiny guidance shortfall and margin pressure were enough to trigger selling.

HPE delivered strong results too, but without a major upside surprise.

So when a stock barely moves after beating earnings, I don’t automatically see a warning. I see a market telling us the future is already priced in. The real opportunity comes when reality starts beating expectations—not simply estimates.

@WallStreet_Tiger [暗中观察]

Broadcom Pitches a $230B 2028 Target — Why Is the Market Only Paying for Next Quarter?
Broadcom fell 2.74% on 2.35x volume, ~28% below its high, despite record revenue of $29.6bn, +86% YoY. Hock Tan set an FY2028 AI revenue target of $230bn, ~4x this year's — selling 2028 while the market pays for next quarter, which guided light. Macquarie upgraded at $490 on Anthropic's ramp; BofA cut its target while raising estimates — higher profits at a lower multiple. Peers held: Marvell +1.14%, Nvidia +1.80%. Bulls anchor on lock-in through 2028; bears on the discount rate: distant revenue is worth less until rates peak. Reprice on the $230bn roadmap, or wait for guidance to catch up?
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Comments

  • 0billionaire
    09-03
    0billionaire
    Or maybe the market is pricing in that 221% AI growth just gets harder from here. Base is bigger now, so AVGO doesn’t get much room for even tiny cracks
  • nimbly
    09-03
    nimbly
    HPE's 30% cloud growth was strong too, but the market still buckets it as an old hardware story. That's why the beat felt muted.
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