I wouldn’t rush into Snowflake

I wouldn’t rush into Snowflake after a 16.5% single-day surge. The fundamentals are clearly improving: product revenue grew 37%, AI contributed roughly half of the recent acceleration, and full-year product revenue guidance was raised to $6.07 billion.

However, there’s an important catch: management lowered its product gross-margin outlook to 74% because AI workloads are more expensive to run. That means revenue growth is accelerating, but profitability is not moving in the same direction.

My view: SNOW is a strong long-term AI/cloud story, but I’d rather buy the pullback than chase the breakout. If growth keeps accelerating and margins stabilize, today’s valuation could eventually look reasonable. If margins keep deteriorating, the market may quickly reconsider the premium.

@Marktomarket [贱笑]

45 Cybercabs on the Road — Enough to Justify a $1.49 Trillion Autonomy Narrative?

Tesla rose 5.42%, then flat after hours: the session priced the launch, the after-hours the reality. Cybercab began carrying passengers in Austin with no wheel or pedals, invite-only, 45 cars; regulators opened a safety review. Waymo opened paid service in three cities the same day. Tesla is ~$1.49tn at ~350x, down 16% YTD, on 45 cars of proof. Bulls: demo-to-passengers is the threshold, owner-operators scale it without capex. Bears: 45 is nowhere near profitable, and a formal probe takes the timeline out of Tesla's hands. Tesla on miles driven, Waymo on paid cities, or wait on the regulator?

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Comments

glowzi
09-04 19:02
glowzi
74% gross margin is not some disaster though. If AI drove about half the acceleration, the market may pay for scale first and wait on efficiency later

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The fundamentals are clearly improving: product revenue grew 37%, AI contributed roughly half of the recent acceleration, and full-year product revenue guidance was raised to $6.07 billion.\n\nHowever, there’s an important catch: management lowered its product gross-margin outlook to 74% because AI workloads are more expensive to run. That means revenue growth is accelerating, but profitability is not moving in the same direction.\nMy view: SNOW is a strong long-term AI/cloud story, but I’d rather buy the pullback than chase the breakout. If growth keeps accelerating and margins stabilize, today’s valuation could eventually look reasonable. If margins keep deteriorating, the market may quickly reconsider the premium.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667691843168\"> @Marktomarket </a> [贱笑]</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>I wouldn’t rush into Snowflake after a 16.5% single-day surge. The fundamentals are clearly improving: product revenue grew 37%, AI contributed roughly half of the recent acceleration, and full-year product revenue guidance was raised to $6.07 billion.\n\nHowever, there’s an important catch: management lowered its product gross-margin outlook to 74% because AI workloads are more expensive to run. That means revenue growth is accelerating, but profitability is not moving in the same direction.\nMy view: SNOW is a strong long-term AI/cloud story, but I’d rather buy the pullback than chase the breakout. If growth keeps accelerating and margins stabilize, today’s valuation could eventually look reasonable. If margins keep deteriorating, the market may quickly reconsider the premium.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667691843168\"> @Marktomarket </a> [贱笑]</body></html>","text":"I wouldn’t rush into Snowflake after a 16.5% single-day surge. 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