I would trust the hold, but I -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

I would trust the hold, but I am not ready to call peak rates yet. Waller has taken some pressure off, but he has not closed the door on another hike.

Payrolls around the +56k consensus with wage growth easing to 3.0% would strengthen the case that the Fed can afford to wait. A much stronger jobs print, especially with hotter wages, could quickly revive the hawkish trade. More importantly, Waller himself has made August inflation the key test.

So for now: September hold > hike, but peak rates still need confirmation from CPI. I would rather miss the first leg of a rally than price in the end of tightening too early.

A Dove Breaks Fed Hawk Chorus — Can S&P's Best Day in a Month Survive Tonight's Jobs Report?

Waller broke weeks of hawkish pressure: he backs holding rates while progress toward 2% continues. Hike odds this month fell 70% to 50%, the 10-year 4.81% to 4.74%. S&P +1.06%, Dow +614 points, best day in a month: Microsoft +2.68%, Meta +3.01%. Ease the pressure and the priciest assets bounce first. But this dove is on loan: the range is still 3.50–3.75%, three members backed a hike in July, and September 16 is live. Tonight's payrolls decide: consensus +56,000 after July's −23,000, and hourly earnings at +3.0% is what matters. Call peak rates before the data, or trust only the hold?

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Comments

snoozi
09-05 16:33
snoozi
July PCE already hinted core services are still sticky, so I get why he is waiting on August CPI. Payrolls alone probably will not settle the peak rates call

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A much stronger jobs print, especially with hotter wages, could quickly revive the hawkish trade. More importantly, Waller himself has made August inflation the key test.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>So for now: September hold &gt; hike, but peak rates still need confirmation from CPI. I would rather miss the first leg of a rally than price in the end of tightening too early.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>I would trust the hold, but I am not ready to call peak rates yet. Waller has taken some pressure off, but he has not closed the door on another hike.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Payrolls around the +56k consensus with wage growth easing to 3.0% would strengthen the case that the Fed can afford to wait. A much stronger jobs print, especially with hotter wages, could quickly revive the hawkish trade. More importantly, Waller himself has made August inflation the key test.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>So for now: September hold &gt; hike, but peak rates still need confirmation from CPI. I would rather miss the first leg of a rally than price in the end of tightening too early.</p></body></html>","text":"I would trust the hold, but I am not ready to call peak rates yet. Waller has taken some pressure off, but he has not closed the door on another hike. Payrolls around the +56k consensus with wage growth easing to 3.0% would strengthen the case that the Fed can afford to wait. A much stronger jobs print, especially with hotter wages, could quickly revive the hawkish trade. More importantly, Waller himself has made August inflation the key test. So for now: September hold > hike, but peak rates still need confirmation from CPI. 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Payrolls alone probably will not settle the peak rates call","text":"July PCE already hinted core services are still sticky, so I get why he is waiting on August CPI. Payrolls alone probably will not settle the peak rates call","html":"July PCE already hinted core services are still sticky, so I get why he is waiting on August CPI. Payrolls alone probably will not settle the peak rates call","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/604370040164568"}