Tigerong
09-06

Broadcom is super plugged into the AI value chain. It doesn’t just produce AI chips for companies like Google, it also makes the networking chips needed to move huge volumes of data fast enough for the AI era.

Its overall revenue rose 86% to $29.6b, but AI semiconductor revenue exploded 221% to $16.7b. Hock Tan, President and CEO of Broadcom, said, “In Q4 the momentum continues, and we expect AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to $21.7 billion, up 236% year over year.”

But in FY28, Broadcom isn’t expecting 200% growth anymore in AI semiconductor revenue. Revenue is projected to hit $230b, up from an estimated $115b in FY27. Still, that’s 100% growth.

The stock still fell, though. Expectations were even higher. Broadcom guided Q4 revenue to $34.8b, but LSEG consensus was about $35.03b, while some other data sets had expectations as high as $35.4b. This is a case where the market appears to have already priced in a lot of the projected growth. That’s why, as I said earlier, results need to be impressive just to justify current stock prices rather than to produce upside, unless a company smashes even the loftiest expectations, like Dell did.

Broadcom Pitches a $230B 2028 Target — Why Is the Market Only Paying for Next Quarter?
Broadcom fell 2.74% on 2.35x volume, ~28% below its high, despite record revenue of $29.6bn, +86% YoY. Hock Tan set an FY2028 AI revenue target of $230bn, ~4x this year's — selling 2028 while the market pays for next quarter, which guided light. Macquarie upgraded at $490 on Anthropic's ramp; BofA cut its target while raising estimates — higher profits at a lower multiple. Peers held: Marvell +1.14%, Nvidia +1.80%. Bulls anchor on lock-in through 2028; bears on the discount rate: distant revenue is worth less until rates peak. Reprice on the $230bn roadmap, or wait for guidance to catch up?
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Comments

  • Jim1995
    09-06
    Jim1995
    The networking side is the real moat here. When AI clusters scale, moving data cleanly becomes just as sticky as compute, so a tiny Q4 miss feels more like expectation indigestion
  • PageDickens
    09-06
    PageDickens
    FY28 guiding to 230b with still 100% AI semi growth is not weak at all. Feels like the selloff was more about a fully priced setup than any real crack
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