$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Moving on to Q

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Moving on to Q4 earnings projections with a first preliminary snapshot.

Using the company's estimates: more than 120K deliveries, an 18.5% gross margin, and an ASP of $41.5K. That ASP could be what the company is projecting for Q3.

That said, if NIO brand sales, mainly the ES8/ES9, keep growing and take up a larger share of the overall mix, Q4 ASP could move higher. In December 2025, 22,276 ES8s were sold, so this wouldn't be far-fetched at all.

Being very conservative here, let's use an ASP of $42K.

Revenue: $5.040B from vehicle sales, and I would assume other income comes in around $500M. Using $5.5B as the base.

Gross profit: $1.017B

OpEx: $850M

Net profit: $167M

Full-year 2026 net profit: $140M

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