Lanceljx
09-07

I would not trim mega-caps solely because payrolls beat. The 162,000 jobs and +55,000 revisions clearly weaken the slowdown narrative, but wage growth easing to 3.1% YoY keeps this from being an unequivocally hawkish report.


The more interesting signal is the muted market reaction. If such a large payroll surprise only nudges yields and rate expectations, investors may already be looking past employment towards CPI. Strong growth can support earnings, but high-duration mega-caps remain vulnerable if inflation forces yields another leg higher.


For me, CPI is the deciding catalyst. A benign print could turn strong payrolls into a soft-landing positive. A hot print would create the more dangerous combination: resilient growth, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer rates. I would hold quality mega-caps, but avoid adding aggressively before CPI.

Rate-Hike Bets Near 90% — Can U.S. Equities Weather This Week's Decision?
Stocks bounced Friday: QQQ +0.87% to $714.88, SPY +0.85%, bitcoin +0.17% at $77,401. Odds of a 25bp hike are near 90% into the Fed's 2 a.m. Beijing decision on Sept 17. August CPI ran 3.4% YoY, in line, but 0.4% MoM was the hottest since June, gasoline +3.9%, a third of goods inflation; core slipped to 2.4%, a third straight decline, lowest since April 2021. Goldman flipped to a hike; JPMorgan sees September and December. At 90% the decision is the other shoe. But if rates keep climbing, AI multiples stop expanding and cash flow does the sorting. AI leaders on earnings, or gold and bitcoin?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • JustinCooper
    09-07
    JustinCooper
    Muted reaction probably also means CPI vol was already priced in, so the payroll surprise got partially absorbed. Wage growth at 3.1% is still the cleaner tell here
Leave a comment
1
5