Lanceljx
09-07

I would wait for Micron rather than chase Friday’s memory rally.


The sector’s fundamentals remain attractive, but Friday’s moves were unusually strong relative to the broader market. Micron closed above $1,000 after gaining 6.1%, while SanDisk jumped 11.9%. At these valuations, good news is increasingly priced in.


September 30 matters more. Micron’s results should tell us whether AI-driven HBM/DRAM demand, pricing and margins are still accelerating. Meanwhile, the Taiwan labour dispute is a genuine tail risk: unions representing nearly 10,000 workers are considering strike action, and Taiwan is Micron’s largest manufacturing base.


I would not short the momentum, but I would not chase it either. Passive flows can push prices higher temporarily; earnings ultimately have to validate them. I would rather miss the last part of the pre-earnings rally and buy after confirmation than pay peak expectations before the industry's first major demand check.

Memory Stocks Hit Hardest — Can Price-Driven Growth Last?
Memory was the worst group Monday: SK Hynix −7.60% to $175.63, Micron −5.25% to $924.03, SanDisk −4.98% to $1,551.99. They fell harder than semis because the valuations assume price increases keep coming. SanDisk's August 5 quarter showed the structure: revenue $8.97bn, +51% sequentially, with the company putting a third of that on volume and two-thirds on price, and non-GAAP gross margin up 6.2pp to 84.6%. TrendForce had NAND contract prices up 70–75% in the spring quarter, narrowing to 10–15% the next. Micron reports Sept 30. When two-thirds of growth is price, does the headline number hold?
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Comments

  • zaza10
    09-07
    zaza10
    That Taiwan labor risk could matter more than Friday's pop. If nearly 10,000 workers are involved, the call better quantify any Q4 capacity hit.
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