$SPY: The First Move Is In. What Happens Next?

The reopening trade after the Labor Day holiday kicked off with a sharp morning drop, pulling $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ down to test $767.23. Options pricing implied a daily 1-standard-deviation move of $3.31 ($766.20 to $772.82). The initial move hit the lower range of that expected volatility band within the first 30 minutes of trading

Key Technical Levels

Resistance 2 (Gap Fill Target): $772.80 (Upper expected move boundary and Friday session high)
Resistance 1 (Pivot / VWAP Zone): $770.20–$771.50 (DeMark Pivot High and previous close)
Key Support Floor: $766.20–$767.00 (Session low & initial expected move lower band)
Support 2 (Liquidity Pocket): $763.50 (Late-August swing low target)

Execution Scenarios

Scenario A: Bearish Trend Continuation (Primary)

Setup: Acceptance and 15-minute candle closing below $766.50.

Trigger: Failure to reclaim $768.50 on bounce attempts.

Target: $765.15 followed by $763.50.

Stop Loss: $769.80.
Scenario B: Bullish Reclaim & Gap Fill (Alternative)

Setup: Liquidity sweep at $766.20 followed by immediate buying volume back above $768.50.

Trigger: 5-minute candle closing back above $770.20.

Target: $772.80 (Full gap fill).

Stop Loss: $767.50.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Chungllq
09-09
Chungllq
768.90 on the 200DMA is the spot I care about more here. If SPY can base above that, the reclaim case looks a lot cleaner

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Also, please feel free to recommend and introduce fellow Tigers to the \"hidden gem traders\" that you've discovered!","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e496e574dd744490c7b4f7959f83f5a4"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4be5b312d628c30470d3a78d346f319","width":"1691","height":"930"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4be5b312d628c30470d3a78d346f319","width":"1691","height":"930"}],"title":"$SPY: The First Move Is In. What Happens Next?","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>The reopening trade after the Labor Day holiday kicked off with a sharp morning drop, pulling <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a> down to test <strong>$767.23</strong>. Options pricing implied a daily 1-standard-deviation move of <strong>$3.31</strong> ($766.20 to $772.82). The initial move hit the lower range of that expected volatility band within the first 30 minutes of trading</p>\n<p></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4be5b312d628c30470d3a78d346f319\" tg-width=\"1691\" tg-height=\"930\"></p>\n<p><strong>Key Technical Levels</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Resistance 2 (Gap Fill Target):</strong> $772.80 (Upper expected move boundary and Friday session high)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Resistance 1 (Pivot / VWAP Zone):</strong> $770.20–$771.50 (DeMark Pivot High and previous close)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Key Support Floor:</strong> $766.20–$767.00 (Session low &amp; initial expected move lower band)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Support 2 (Liquidity Pocket):</strong> $763.50 (Late-August swing low target)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Execution Scenarios</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Scenario A: Bearish Trend Continuation (Primary)</strong></p>\n  <p><strong>Setup:</strong> Acceptance and 15-minute candle closing below $766.50.</p>\n  <p><strong>Trigger:</strong> Failure to reclaim $768.50 on bounce attempts.</p>\n  <p><strong>Target:</strong> $765.15 followed by $763.50.</p>\n  <p><strong>Stop Loss:</strong> $769.80.</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Scenario B: Bullish Reclaim &amp; Gap Fill (Alternative)</strong></p>\n  <p><strong>Setup:</strong> Liquidity sweep at $766.20 followed by immediate buying volume back above $768.50.</p>\n  <p><strong>Trigger:</strong> 5-minute candle closing back above $770.20.</p>\n  <p><strong>Target:</strong> $772.80 (Full gap fill).</p>\n  <p><strong>Stop Loss:</strong> $767.50.</p></li>\n</ul></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>The reopening trade after the Labor Day holiday kicked off with a sharp morning drop, pulling <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a> down to test <strong>$767.23</strong>. Options pricing implied a daily 1-standard-deviation move of <strong>$3.31</strong> ($766.20 to $772.82). The initial move hit the lower range of that expected volatility band within the first 30 minutes of trading</p>\n<p></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4be5b312d628c30470d3a78d346f319\" tg-width=\"1691\" tg-height=\"930\"></p>\n<p><strong>Key Technical Levels</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Resistance 2 (Gap Fill Target):</strong> $772.80 (Upper expected move boundary and Friday session high)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Resistance 1 (Pivot / VWAP Zone):</strong> $770.20–$771.50 (DeMark Pivot High and previous close)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Key Support Floor:</strong> $766.20–$767.00 (Session low &amp; initial expected move lower band)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Support 2 (Liquidity Pocket):</strong> $763.50 (Late-August swing low target)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Execution Scenarios</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Scenario A: Bearish Trend Continuation (Primary)</strong></p>\n  <p><strong>Setup:</strong> Acceptance and 15-minute candle closing below $766.50.</p>\n  <p><strong>Trigger:</strong> Failure to reclaim $768.50 on bounce attempts.</p>\n  <p><strong>Target:</strong> $765.15 followed by $763.50.</p>\n  <p><strong>Stop Loss:</strong> $769.80.</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><strong>Scenario B: Bullish Reclaim &amp; Gap Fill (Alternative)</strong></p>\n  <p><strong>Setup:</strong> Liquidity sweep at $766.20 followed by immediate buying volume back above $768.50.</p>\n  <p><strong>Trigger:</strong> 5-minute candle closing back above $770.20.</p>\n  <p><strong>Target:</strong> $772.80 (Full gap fill).</p>\n  <p><strong>Stop Loss:</strong> $767.50.</p></li>\n</ul></body></html>","text":"The reopening trade after the Labor Day holiday kicked off with a sharp morning drop, pulling $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ down to test $767.23. Options pricing implied a daily 1-standard-deviation move of $3.31 ($766.20 to $772.82). The initial move hit the lower range of that expected volatility band within the first 30 minutes of trading Key Technical Levels Resistance 2 (Gap Fill Target): $772.80 (Upper expected move boundary and Friday session high) Resistance 1 (Pivot / VWAP Zone): $770.20–$771.50 (DeMark Pivot High and previous close) Key Support Floor: $766.20–$767.00 (Session low & initial expected move lower band) Support 2 (Liquidity Pocket): $763.50 (Late-August swing low target) Execution Scenarios Scenario A: Bearish Trend Continuation (Primary) Setup: Acceptance and 15-minute candle closing below $766.50. Trigger: Failure to reclaim $768.50 on bounce attempts. Target: $765.15 followed by $763.50. Stop Loss: $769.80. Scenario B: Bullish Reclaim & Gap Fill (Alternative) Setup: Liquidity sweep at $766.20 followed by immediate buying volume back above $768.50. Trigger: 5-minute candle closing back above $770.20. Target: $772.80 (Full gap fill). 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If SPY can base above that, the reclaim case looks a lot cleaner","text":"768.90 on the 200DMA is the spot I care about more here. If SPY can base above that, the reclaim case looks a lot cleaner","html":"768.90 on the 200DMA is the spot I care about more here. If SPY can base above that, the reclaim case looks a lot cleaner","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/605549050528864"}