Lanceljx
09-09

I think the supply-chain rally has further to run, but leadership may shift from Nvidia to the bottlenecks.


Nvidia's $96.2bn quarter and 117% Data Center growth confirm that AI infrastructure demand is still accelerating. More importantly, Nvidia's supply commitments have surged to $279bn, primarily for memory.


That makes the margin pressure revealing. If scarce memory is expensive enough to compress Nvidia's margins, the same cost pressure can translate into pricing power for memory suppliers. DRAM and HBM demand already exceeds supply, strengthening the case for $MU and $SKHY. Connectivity and optical names can benefit too as ever-larger GPU clusters require more bandwidth.


I would therefore avoid chasing the whole basket after an earnings spike. Nvidia has proved the demand story; now I would watch whether orders and pricing confirm the second-order winners.


My preference: memory first, optical/connectivity second, NVDA on a pullback. The biggest risk is that today's enthusiasm prices in too much of tomorrow's earnings.

AI Giants Call for Slowdown — Can Chip Stocks Hold?
Chips closed Friday strong: SOXL +5.23%, Marvell +4.03% to $236.10, Intel +2.61% to $102.94, AMD +2.49%, Nvidia flat at −0.03%. Over the weekend Anthropic's Amodei called publicly for slowing frontier model development, and Altman and Musk both backed him, all three endorsing independent safety evaluations. By Monday's pre-open the sector had turned: SOXL −6.94%, Intel −3.68%, Marvell −3.49%, Nasdaq-100 futures −1%, the Nikkei −2%. Nobody has announced halted training or cut capex — this is a shock to expected demand, not to orders. Safety testing and inference burn compute too. Buy this dip?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • snuggix
    09-09
    snuggix
    HBM ramp is probably slower than people expect, which keeps the pricing window open longer for memory. That margin squeeze on Nvidia says more than the revenue beat lol
Leave a comment
1