🔥 #Memory Supercycle Over? I -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

🔥 #Memory Supercycle Over? I Don’t Think So.

Friday looked like a clean memory breakout — then today exposed the real battle. ⚔️

SK Hynix +4.83% 🚀

Micron -1.61% 📉

SanDisk -0.12% 😐

Same memory trade, completely different reactions. So what changed?

👉 The shortage hasn’t disappeared. It’s spreading.

HBM is already tight, but now conventional DRAM + NAND are being pulled into the squeeze. Reports of Samsung and SK Hynix inventories falling below 10 days are hard to ignore. 🧨

But here’s the catch: Kioxia.

If Kioxia is signalling that it wants to cool price increases, that challenges the cleanest bull thesis. Because in a shortage, the biggest enemy isn’t always weak demand — sometimes it’s your competitor deciding not to let prices run away. 👀

Still, I see this as a speed bump, not the end of the cycle.

AI infrastructure keeps consuming enormous amounts of memory, while meaningful new capacity takes time. If inventories continue falling while pricing remains firm, the market may eventually realise that the shortage is much deeper than one company’s pricing strategy.

🎯 My read: Memory supercycle = NOT OVER.

It’s entering the “prove the pricing power” phase.

Watch SK Hynix → inventory & HBM demand 📊

Watch Kioxia → NAND pricing 👁️

Watch Micron → DRAM pricing & margins 💰

Watch SNDK → whether NAND tightness translates into actual pricing power 🚀

If those four continue confirming tight supply, today’s divergence could look less like a top…

…and more like the market shaking out the weak hands before the next leg higher. 🔥📈

Two Sessions Undid Friday's Rally: Memory Supercycle Over?

Memory split: SK Hynix +4.83%, Micron −1.61%, SanDisk −0.12% — the same names that rallied together on Friday, SanDisk +12%, Micron +6%. The tightness is real: the shortage is spreading from HBM into DRAM and NAND, and Korean brokers put Samsung's and SK Hynix's inventories below ten days. The crack: Kioxia denied merger talks with SK Hynix and signalled it would cool price rises — the opposite of the tight-supply story. The counterparty to higher prices is not just the customer but rivals who want to keep that customer. Follow SK Hynix on inventory, or wait for Kioxia's stance to hit quotes?

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Comments

cheezzy
09-09
cheezzy
Sub-10 day inventory only matters if that is true end demand, not channel stuffing. If Kioxia is already leaning against pricing, the clean bull case gets shaky fast

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Friday looked like a clean memory breakout — then today exposed the real battle. ⚔️ SK Hynix +4.83% 🚀 Micron -1.61% 📉 SanDisk -0.12% 😐 Same memory trade, completely different reactions. So what changed? 👉 The shortage hasn’t disappeared. It’s spreading. HBM is already tight, but now conventional DRAM + NAND are being pulled into the squeeze. Reports of Samsung and SK Hynix inventories falling below 10 days are hard to ignore. 🧨 But here’s the catch: Kioxia. If Kioxia is signalling that it wants to cool price increases, that challenges the cleanest bull thesis. Because in a shortage, the biggest enemy isn’t always weak demand — sometimes it’s your competitor deciding not to let prices run away. 👀 Still, I see this as a speed bump, not the end of the cycle. AI infrastructure keeps consuming enormous amounts of memory, while meaningful new capacity takes time. 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