Tiger 123
09-09

The biggest change overnight is a sharper split between AI fundamentals and the broader market. The S&P 500 fell 0.58%, Dow 1.18% and Nasdaq 0.32% as Brent approached US$100 and Treasury yields stayed near 4.8%. Yet semiconductor names tied to custom AI infrastructure held up better, helped by a major new Amazon–Qualcomm agreement.

Micron is already shipping HBM4 in volume for Nvidia Vera Rubin, delivering >2.8 TB/s bandwidth and >20% greater power efficiency than HBM3E. SK hynix meanwhile approved about ₩54T of new fab investment specifically to address growing AI-memory demand. HBM remains the strongest fundamental layer, but after recent sharp memory rallies coupled with imminent interest rate increases, better entry points key rather than Supercycle over. 

Memory Stocks Hit Hardest — Can Price-Driven Growth Last?
Memory was the worst group Monday: SK Hynix −7.60% to $175.63, Micron −5.25% to $924.03, SanDisk −4.98% to $1,551.99. They fell harder than semis because the valuations assume price increases keep coming. SanDisk's August 5 quarter showed the structure: revenue $8.97bn, +51% sequentially, with the company putting a third of that on volume and two-thirds on price, and non-GAAP gross margin up 6.2pp to 84.6%. TrendForce had NAND contract prices up 70–75% in the spring quarter, narrowing to 10–15% the next. Micron reports Sept 30. When two-thirds of growth is price, does the headline number hold?
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Comments

  • IrmaBurke
    09-09
    IrmaBurke
    That HBM4 jump matters more for inference than people think — Rubin class systems get more headroom on memory-bound loads, but the real bottleneck may shift to packaging and qualified supply.
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