Anthony CY Tan
09-10 07:21

No, I would not say the memory supercycle is over. In fact, the latest data suggest we are still in the strong part of the cycle, although the risk/reward has changed dramatically because memory stocks have already run so far.

My view: the supercycle is alive, but we’re entering the “late-cycle / valuation” phase

The biggest evidence is supply-demand:

* Gartner forecasts memory revenue of $837B in 2026, up enormously from 2025, with another increase to over $1T in 2027. It expects DRAM revenue to rise 246.6% and NAND 371.9% in 2026.

* Omdia says AI demand is still exceeding available DRAM/HBM/NAND supply and expects bottlenecks to persist into 2027.

* Recent industry commentary says DRAM and NAND remain undersupplied, potentially through 2027.

* SK hynix itself describes 2026 as an HBM-led memory supercycle, with HBM3E transitioning toward HBM4.

So fundamentally, the cycle hasn’t broken, and hence, I would say the memory supercycle is not over as yet. 

Two Sessions Undid Friday's Rally: Memory Supercycle Over?
Memory split: SK Hynix +4.83%, Micron −1.61%, SanDisk −0.12% — the same names that rallied together on Friday, SanDisk +12%, Micron +6%. The tightness is real: the shortage is spreading from HBM into DRAM and NAND, and Korean brokers put Samsung's and SK Hynix's inventories below ten days. The crack: Kioxia denied merger talks with SK Hynix and signalled it would cool price rises — the opposite of the tight-supply story. The counterparty to higher prices is not just the customer but rivals who want to keep that customer. Follow SK Hynix on inventory, or wait for Kioxia's stance to hit quotes?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Dollydolly
    09-10 08:02
    Dollydolly
    Those Gartner and Omdia numbers are still model outputs, not demand clearing in real shipments. If PC and handset demand stays soft, late-cycle oversupply can show up fast
Leave a comment
1