Puts puts puts baby
09-10

Despite delivering another record-breaking quarter with $96.221 billion in revenue (+106% YoY) driven by massive data center demand (+117%) and the acceleration of its next-gen Rubin architecture, Nvidia’s post-earnings stock weakness reflects growing margin anxiety and a consistent pattern of post-release sell-offs. High memory component costs are projected to squeeze Nvidia's gross margin down from 75% to a trough of 71%–72% in Q4, signaling that supply chain inflation is temporarily outpacing pricing power. However, this near-term margin pressure on the primary chipmaker directly benefits memory and optical suppliers who are capturing those increased component dollars, creating a classic supply chain rotation. For investors, buying Nvidia right on the earnings headline carries historical risk given its four-quarter trend of initial sell-offs, but the broader rally in underlying memory and cloud infrastructure names offers a compelling pick-and-shovel entry point as compute continues to directly convert into enterprise revenue.

AI Giants Call for Slowdown — Can Chip Stocks Hold?
Chips closed Friday strong: SOXL +5.23%, Marvell +4.03% to $236.10, Intel +2.61% to $102.94, AMD +2.49%, Nvidia flat at −0.03%. Over the weekend Anthropic's Amodei called publicly for slowing frontier model development, and Altman and Musk both backed him, all three endorsing independent safety evaluations. By Monday's pre-open the sector had turned: SOXL −6.94%, Intel −3.68%, Marvell −3.49%, Nasdaq-100 futures −1%, the Nikkei −2%. Nobody has announced halted training or cut capex — this is a shock to expected demand, not to orders. Safety testing and inference burn compute too. Buy this dip?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • EllisBird
    09-10
    EllisBird
    Memory suppliers look helped here, but that usually shows up near the top of the cycle. If Nvidia margin bottoms cleanly, a lot of that supplier upside may already be priced in lol
  • MorganHope
    09-10
    MorganHope
    Rubin pulling forward matters way more than a 3 point gross margin dip. 117% data center growth still says demand is outrunning the supply chain
Leave a comment
2