Puts puts puts baby
09-10

Despite delivering another record-breaking quarter with $96.221 billion in revenue (+106% YoY) driven by massive data center demand (+117%) and the acceleration of its next-gen Rubin architecture, Nvidia’s post-earnings stock weakness reflects growing margin anxiety and a consistent pattern of post-release sell-offs. High memory component costs are projected to squeeze Nvidia's gross margin down from 75% to a trough of 71%–72% in Q4, signaling that supply chain inflation is temporarily outpacing pricing power. However, this near-term margin pressure on the primary chipmaker directly benefits memory and optical suppliers who are capturing those increased component dollars, creating a classic supply chain rotation. For investors, buying Nvidia right on the earnings headline carries historical risk given its four-quarter trend of initial sell-offs, but the broader rally in underlying memory and cloud infrastructure names offers a compelling pick-and-shovel entry point as compute continues to directly convert into enterprise revenue.

Nvidia Lifts Buyback Authorization to $235B — Who's Buying the New High?
Nvidia closed +1.34% at $233.95 Friday after an intraday record $237.88, market cap near $6T. No fresh news: the board added $150B to the buyback, authorization now $235B through Jan 2028. Chips rose: AMD +2.95% to $633.91, past $1T for the first time, +196% YTD; Broadcom +3.35% to $355.14. Intel alone fell -0.56% to $119.33. Bulls say $235B of buying cushions the price; bears say buybacks lift EPS, not next year's data-center orders — which $6T already assumes. When does a buyback stop being support?
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Comments

  • EllisBird
    09-10
    EllisBird
    Memory suppliers look helped here, but that usually shows up near the top of the cycle. If Nvidia margin bottoms cleanly, a lot of that supplier upside may already be priced in lol
  • MorganHope
    09-10
    MorganHope
    Rubin pulling forward matters way more than a 3 point gross margin dip. 117% data center growth still says demand is outrunning the supply chain
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