Puts puts puts baby
09-10

The recent spike in oil prices following Houthi strikes on Saudi energy facilities has injected fresh inflation fears into the market, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.8% and weighing on broad equities like the S&P and Dow. While the U.S. Treasury's expanded $6 billion 10-to-20-year buyback operation aims to bolster bond market liquidity and curb sharp yield spikes, buybacks do not equate to quantitative easing or reduce fundamental deficit expansion. Because the $6 billion figure came in below higher Wall Street expectations of up to $10 billion, long yields initially surged higher rather than lower as markets priced in persistent fiscal and energy cost pressures. Investors should avoid aggressively buying long bonds purely on buyback headlines—as technical intervention alone cannot override core drivers like crude oil prices and strong payrolls—and instead maintain a defensive posture while waiting for next week's CPI inflation data to confirm interest rate direction and tech sector valuations

Nasdaq Closes at Record, 10-Year Tops 5.32% — What's Holding It Up?
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05% Monday to a record close of 27,477.31; the S&P 500 gained 0.66% to 7,773.95, within 0.6% of its own record; QQQ added 0.88% to $756.20. The 10-year yield climbed to 5.321%, the highest since 2002. The Dow lagged, +0.18% at 51,267.90. Bulls say the record rests on AI earnings, not multiple expansion, so it can take higher rates; bears say it sits on a few mega-cap names with no second leg. A Nasdaq record and a yield record on the same day — how long can both hold?
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Comments

  • fizzloo
    09-10
    fizzloo
    The undersized buyback just showed how boxed in Treasury really is. Bigger issue than oil now is deficit pressure sticking around into CPI
  • keke006
    09-10
    keke006
    4.8% already feels like a real break, not just buyback noise. If CPI runs hot again, 5% on the 10-year stops looking crazy
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