Lanceljx
09-10

Memory keeps running: SK Hynix +7.05% to a record, Micron +2.75%, SanDisk +1.51%. The bull case remains powerful: AI/HBM demand is squeezing supply, while SK Hynix's massive shareholder-return programme adds another tailwind.


But at record highs, expectations matter more than the story. Much of the good news may already be priced in, so any disappointment in pricing, HBM demand or shareholder returns could trigger a sharp pullback.


Micron reports on Sept 30, giving investors a major read on DRAM/HBM pricing, margins and AI demand.


My pick: wait for Micron rather than chase SK Hynix at records. The memory cycle still looks strong, but I would rather sacrifice some upside for confirmation than pay peak expectations today.

HBM Shortage Drives Up Chip Quotes — Can the Memory Super-Cycle Last?
Memory handed back the whole move: Hynix's U.S. lines −5.20%, Micron −4.90%, SanDisk −4.06%, one session after Hynix set a record. Nothing broke in the fundamentals — Reuters reports the HBM shortage transmitting downstream, some domestic AI chip quotes up 20–50%, and the spillover to DRAM and NAND still ahead. The seller was macro: rising yields and $100 oil, plus foreign selling in Seoul, where Samsung and Hynix are half the index. The 20–40tn won buyback is an S&P Global forecast, not an announcement — if it never lands, the premium goes back. HBM, DRAM, or NAND, or wait for Micron Sept 30?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • ZOE011
    09-10
    ZOE011
    I’m waiting for Micron too, but capex guidance matters more to me. That is what sets next year’s supply pace and tells us whether this memory cycle can really stay tight
Leave a comment
1