Core CPI is 0.3% on a monthly basis, exceeding market expectations by 0.2% – a subtle but deadly number. Because what the Federal Reserve really anchors is not the level of annual data, but the direction and speed of month month-to-month. When the monthly pace of core inflation re-intensifies from 0.2% to 0.3%, it means that the annualized core inflation implicit rate returns to over 3.6%, far from the 2% target
10-Year Treasury Hits 5% Intraday — Can Equities Hold?
Indexes held up far better than chips: QQQ −0.80% to $709.18, SPY −0.45% to $760.88, S&P 500 −0.48% to 7,619.98. The 10-year touched 5.012% intraday, highest since 2007, then closed near 4.95% — it did not hold 5%. Inflation and supply both pushed: Friday's data took hike odds to 88%, oil rebounded, government and corporate borrowing keeps growing. A higher discount rate hits earnings that sit furthest out — chips fell hard, the index under 1%. The Fed decides Wednesday, 2 a.m. Beijing Sept 17. The index not following chips looks like rotation, not exit. At 5%, has the market reacted enough?
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