For me, the most important signal is the 30-year Treasury yield. The Fed controls short-term rates, but long-term yields reflect a broader mix of inflation expectations, fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, economic growth and investor demand.

That distinction matters because a Fed cut does not automatically mean financing conditions become easier. If long-term yields remain elevated, mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs can stay high, while equity valuations may face continued pressure.

I’m therefore watching the long end of the curve alongside Fed policy, rather than treating the next rate decision as the entire market story. If the Fed turns dovish while 30-year yields keep rising, that divergence could be an important warning signal.

For me, the bond market is increasingly where the real macro story is being priced.

@TigerClub [龇牙]