I’m picking C. 📈 The 30-year Treasury yield is the signal I’m watching most closely because it reflects more than just expectations for the next Fed move—fiscal borrowing, inflation expectations and long-term demand for U.S. debt all matter. If long yields stay elevated while the Fed eases, that could create a very different market backdrop for equities. 👀
Fed Rate Decision Due: Can Markets Absorb a 25 bps Hike?
Indexes closed lower again Tuesday: QQQ −0.65% to $704.54, SPY −0.46% to $757.39, S&P 500 −0.45% to 7,585.73. Everything waits on 2 a.m. Beijing Wednesday, when the Fed is expected to hike 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% with oil and yields climbing. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman all argue the turn is priced and that earnings and growth still carry equities, so one hike does not redirect the move. The tape agrees for now — indexes down under 1%, VIX at 17.20, no panic. But "already priced in" is a calculation, and it gets redone the moment the path is redrawn. Have the big banks called this right?
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